| 预报土壤盐分动态的多层递阶时序法 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡树英,杨金忠,张瑜芳.预报土壤盐分动态的多层递阶时序法[J].土壤学报,1998,35(2):254-259. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡树英 杨金忠 张瑜芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉水利电力大学 |
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| 基金项目： | * 国家自然科学基金,批准号:59639240;211工程青年基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 文中将多层递阶时间序列方法用于土壤盐分动态的预报,方法简单,计算工作量小,预报精度高,而且避免了利用确定性方法预报时所遇到的困难。实例分析表明,本方法通过对于时变参数的追踪和预报,加上模型本身可修复的特点,使对土壤盐分动态的预测精度得以提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 土壤盐分 时序序列 时变参数 多层递阶预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1996/12/7 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1997/5/26 0:00:00 |
A MULTI-LAYER HIERARCHICAL TIME SERIES MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF SOIL SALINITY |
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| Cai Shu-ying,Yang Jin-zhong and Zhang Yu-fang.A MULTI-LAYER HIERARCHICAL TIME SERIES MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF SOIL SALINITY[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,1998,35(2):254-259. |
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| Authors: | Cai Shu-ying Yang Jin-zhong and Zhang Yu-fang |
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| Institution: | Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, Wuhan, Hubei 430072;Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, Wuhan, Hubei 430072;Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, Wuhan, Hubei 430072 |
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| Abstract: | A multi-layer hierarchical time series model was used for the prediction of soil salinity. The method was simple and the prediction precision was improved by forecasting and tracking the parameters of the model. The comparison between the predicted and measured results in a large irrigation area showed the good reliability of the method. |
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| Keywords: | Soil salinity Time series Time-dependent parameters Multi-layer hierarchical forecasting |
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