| 基于变结构协整检验的都市农业景观演变阶段分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 任国平,刘黎明,管青春,马聪,孙锦.基于变结构协整检验的都市农业景观演变阶段分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(24):249-260. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任国平 刘黎明 管青春 马聪 孙锦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193; 2.湖南城市学院管理学院，益阳 413000;,1.中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193;,1.中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193;,1.中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193;,1.中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41471455） |
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| 摘 要： | 为准确判定经济增长和农业景观面积变化的结构突变时点,划分都市农业景观演变阶段,该文以上海市西郊的青浦区为例,利用1978-2015年的经济和农业景观时间序列数据,采用Gregory-Hansen变结构协整检验对该区经济增长与农业景观面积变化进行分析。结果表明:长时段的不考虑结构突变点的协整检验方法,对处于经济社会快速转型期的上海市青浦区并不合适;而变结构协整方法能较好地反映长时段内经济和社会结构变化,体现该区经济和社会系统内部长期均衡关系;青浦区的经济增长是以牺牲农业景观资源为代价而实现的;1978-2015年青浦区农业景观演变可划分为3个阶段:低水平协同阶段(1978-1995年)、反向推动阶段(1995-2007年)和经济拉动阶段(2007-2015年)。该结果既有助于协调该区经济发展与农业景观资源保护问题,为土地空间整治提供重要的理论依据,又能对经济欠发达区域更好处理二者关系提供科学借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 整治 农业 经济增长 农业景观 变结构协整检验 阶段划分 青浦区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/8/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/11/29 0:00:00 |
Analysis on evolution stages of agricultural landscape in metropolitan based on variable structure co-integration test |
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| Ren Guoping,Liu Liming,Guan Qingchun,Ma Cong and Sun Jin.Analysis on evolution stages of agricultural landscape in metropolitan based on variable structure co-integration test[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(24):249-260. |
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| Authors: | Ren Guoping Liu Liming Guan Qingchun Ma Cong and Sun Jin |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; 2. College of Management, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, China;,1. College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;,1. College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;,1. College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; and 1. College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; |
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| Abstract: | Abstract: The economic growth and the change of agricultural landscape resources quantity have significant temporal variability and evolution stages. Researching the relationship between the 2 parties and recognizing the stage characteristics have always been a hot topic in the region of resource economics. This study tried to find the point of structural mutation, divided the evolution stages of urban agricultural landscape, and analyzed the reasons. It used time series data of the economic growth and the change of agricultural landscape resources quantity in the year from 1978 to 2015. Meanwhile, it also used the Gregory-Hansen integration test with structural break to analyze the relationship between them in the western suburbs of Qingpu District in Shanghai City. The results showed that: 1) The co-integration test of long period without considering the structural break point was not suitable for the Qingpu District which had been in the transitional period; the co-integration test with structural break analysis could reflect the change of economic and social structure in long time, and reflect the long-term equilibrium relationship between the economic and social system. It was difficult to capture the sudden change of economic sequence in a long time with the static integration analysis without considering the structural change. Meanwhile, it was also difficult to describe the changes of economic relations and economic structure. However, variable structure co-integration analysis could accurately and timely capture the mutation time of economic time series, and reveal the true relationship between economic variables. 2) The evolution of agricultural landscape could be divided into 3 stages in Qingpu District during the period of 1978-2015: low level synergy stage (1978-1995), reverse push stage (1995-2007) and economic pull stage (2007-2015). The characteristics of low level synergy stage were slow economic growth, slow change in agricultural landscape area and low level coordination of agricultural landscape land elements to economic growth. In the reverse push stage, the characteristics were the sharp decrease of agricultural landscape resources. Agricultural landscape resources, which were the important economic stimulus resources, supported the rapid economic development, and its fast consumption had become the cost of economic growth. And in the economic pull stage, the characteristics were the reduction of the agricultural landscape area, and the input of agricultural landscape resources conformed to the requirement of economic growth. The land elements of agricultural landscape resources played an important role as one of the elements that participated in economic growth. 3) The economic growth was realized at the expense of agricultural landscape resources in Qingpu District. The analysis of the long-term equilibrium parameters of the error correction model showed that the values in the 3 stages were negative (-0.438, -0.919 and -0.223). From the analysis of variable structure causality test, the decrease of the number of agricultural land landscapes in the 3 stages was the Granger reason for economic growth. These results could well prove that during the period of the year from 1978 to 2015, the growth of economic in Qingpu District inevitably led to the reduction of the number of agricultural landscapes. The results are helpful to coordinate the economic development in that region and the protection of agricultural landscape resources. They also can provide scientific references for the less developed regions to better handle with the relationship between economic development and protection of agricultural landscape resources. |
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| Keywords: | land use land consolidation agriculture economic growth agricultural landscape co-integration test with structural break evolution stage Qingpu district |
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