| 区域耕地面积时空变化特征及驱动力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李洁,马卫鹏,余永林.区域耕地面积时空变化特征及驱动力分析[J].南方农业学报,2012,43(8):1241-1246. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李洁 马卫鹏 余永林 |
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| 作者单位： | 西京学院思政部;长安大学地球与资源学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅科技项目(11JK0201) |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】为中部6省经济社会协调发展提供理论依据，同时也为其他区域的耕地保护、耕地可持续利用及相关研究提供参考。【方法】利用文献分析法对耕地面积变化时空特征进行分析，并采用主成分分析法对我国中部6省的耕地驱动力因子进行分析。【结果】在时间特征上，2000~2010年中部地区的耕地面积呈“增加—减少—增加—减少”的阶段性发展特征，耕地利用程度呈“减少—增加—减少—增加”的阶段性发展特征；在空间特征上，中部6省耕地数量变化不大，但是土地利用结构存在着明显的区域差异。影响中部6省耕地面积变化的15个驱动因子可分为社会经济驱动因子（又分为人口驱动因子和经济发展驱动因子）、农业驱动因子（又分为农业科技驱动因子和农业生产驱动因子）和政策驱动因子（城镇用地驱动因子）三大类。【建议】安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南5省可以通过重点加强以农田水利设施为基础的田间工程建设，改进农业耕作方式、健全科技支撑与服务体系，巩固提升全国重要商品粮生产基地地位；山西省可以晋中南产粮大县为重点，推进抗旱水源、农田水利等基础设施建设，加强地力培肥和水土保持，推广应用高产栽培、节水灌溉等技术，充分挖掘粮食单产潜力，增强区域粮食供给能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地面积 时空变化 驱动力 主成分分析 中部地区 |
Analysis on temporal and spatial variation characteristics of regional agricultural acreage and its driving force——A case of Central China area |
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| LI Jie,MA Wei-peng, YU Yong-lin.Analysis on temporal and spatial variation characteristics of regional agricultural acreage and its driving force——A case of Central China area[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture,2012,43(8):1241-1246. |
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| Authors: | LI Jie MA Wei-peng YU Yong-lin |
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| Institution: | 1 Politic-ideological Education Department of Xijing University, Xi’an 710123, China; 2 College of Earth Science and Resources, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective]The present research was aimed to provide the theoretical references for harmonious development of economy and society in six provinces of Central China, as well as the protection and sustainable utilization of cultivated land and its related research. Method]Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of agricultural acreage change and its driving force factors in six provinces of Central China were analyzed by literature analysis and principal component analysis, respectively. Result]Regarding temporal characteristics analysis, during 2000-2010, agricultural acreage change of the six provinces showed the trend of "increase-decrease-increase-decrease", and farmland utilization showed the trend of "decrease-increase-decrease-increase". Despite obvious regional differences in land utilization, agricultural acreage varied only little among the six provinces. Fifteen driving factors, which affected the change of arable land in Central China, were divided into three categories, namely socio-economic driving factors (which consisted of population and economic development), agriculture driving factors (which comprised of agricultural science and technology, and agricultural production) and policy driving factors (urban land use). Suggestion]It was suggested that except Shanxi, the other five provinces, viz., Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan,should strengthen field engineering construction based on farmland water conservancy facilities and improve agricultural cultivation pattern and technical support and service system in order to consolidate the status of national key commodity grain production bases. Shanxi, on the other hand, should focus on southern and middle grain production counties, which includes promoting infrastructure construction of drought resistant water source and farmland water conservancy, enhancing soil fertility and water and soil conservation for protecting arable land, extending high yielding cultivation and water-saving irrigation technologies, and boosting unit production potential; these improvements will eventually enhance regional grain supply capacity. |
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| Keywords: | arable acreage temporal and spatial variation driving force principal component analysis central |
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