| 2015年7月14-27日石河子地区异常高温过程分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁虎,王科.2015年7月14-27日石河子地区异常高温过程分析[J].安徽农业科学,2016(31). |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁虎 王科 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆石河子气象局,新疆石河子,832000 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961—2015年历史气象资料，普查石河子地区持续10 d以上≥35℃的高温过程，分析了石河子地区持续异常高温过程的环流形势以及太阳黑子年际变化与高温过程的对应关系；在此基础上分析了2015年7月中下旬的持续异常高温过程发生的物理机制，并对数值预报进行了检验。结果表明，石河子地区持续高温过程主要是在高压脊型和纬向带状型2种环流背景下发生，500 hPa 580 dagpm等高线北上越过天山进入北疆地区，极锋锋区北缩至60°N以北；850 hPa温度场上24℃等温线北上控制北疆地区；该地区高温过程多发生在太阳黑子活动低谷期；高温期间极涡在65°N以北至极地附近，位置显著偏西偏北；副热带高压显著发展，异常强大的暖高压、持续的下沉增温和地形效应造成了此次持续的高温过程；ECMWF模式准确预报了此次高温过程的环流形势和物理场，单站检验结果显示地面气压和850 hPa温度预报误差分别在2 hPa以内和1℃以内，环流形势场和要素预报稳定且时效长，检验结果表明ECMWF产品可以作为石河子地区连续高温过程预报的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 高温 环流特征 物理机制 数值预报 石河子地区 |
Analysis of Abnormal High Temperature Process in Shihezi Region during 14-17 July,2015 |
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| DING Hu,WANG Ke.Analysis of Abnormal High Temperature Process in Shihezi Region during 14-17 July,2015[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2016(31). |
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| Authors: | DING Hu WANG Ke |
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| Abstract: | Using the historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2015,≥35 ℃high temperature process of lasting more than 10 d in Shihezi re-gion was investigated,the circulation pattern of the continuous abnormal high temperature process in Shihezi region and the corresponding relation-ship between the annual change of sunspot and the high temperature process were analyzed .Based on this, the physical mechanism of continuous high temperature process in late-middle of July 2015 was analyzed, and the numerical prediction was tested.The results showed that the continu-ous high temperature processes in Shihezi region occurmainly in the two kinds of circulation backgrounds of high pressure ridge and zonal band type,500 hPa 580 dagpm contour line north across the Tianshan Mountains into the northern region of Xinjiang , the north front of the polar frontal region was reduced to 60 °N.850 hPa temperature fields 24 ℃ isotherm northward controlled northern region;the high temperature processes of the region occur in the sunspot activity trough.During the high temperature period,the polar vortex location was obviously west to north in north of 65 °N and near the poles.Significant development of the subtropical high , unusually strong warm high pressure , sustained subsidence warming and topographic effects caused the continued high temperature process .The circulation and physical field of the high temperature process were ac-curately predicted by ECMWF model.The results of single station test showed that the prediction errors of the surface pressure and the 850 hPa temperature were within 2 hPa and 1℃, respectively;the circulation field and element forecast were stable and long-term.The test results showed that ECMWF can be used as a reference for continuous high temperature process prediction in Shihezi region . |
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| Keywords: | High temperature Circulation characteristics Physical mechanism Numerical prediction Shihezi region |
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