| 近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 任朝霞,杨达源.近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(8):48-53. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任朝霞 杨达源 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京,210046;长安大学地球科学与国土资源学院,西安,710054
2. 南京大学城市与资源学系,南京,210093 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文选取了西北干旱区21个代表站点1951-2000年逐日气温和逐日降水量资料。用趋势法和百分位阈值法分析年平均气温、年降水量、极端年最低温度、年最高温度和极端降水量变化特征及其各分区极端气候变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)近50a西北干旱区气温呈上升趋势(0.22℃/10a),1986年后气温明显升高,柴达木盆地和北疆升温较大。近50a西北干旱区年降水量变化和趋势分布,降水变化有增加的趋势(3.2mm/10a),其中北疆降水增加最多。(2)西北干旱区近40a年极端最低温度的天数有减少趋势,平均最低温度天数的减少率为7-8天/40a。而极端年最高温度的天数略有增加趋势,平均增加率为0.5天/40a左右。年最高温度略有减少趋势,平均变率为-0.5℃/40a,年最低温度也有增加趋势,平均变率为1.0℃/40a。西北干旱区近40a极端降水的天数增加了2天/40a。(3)气候变暖对西北干旱区农业既有有利影响,又有不利影响,降水量增加,极端气候事件减少对农业有有利影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化趋势 西北干旱区 农业影响 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7578（2007）08-048-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-30 |
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the Arid Region of Northwest China in Resent 50 Years |
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| REN Zhao-xia,YANG Da-yuan.Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the Arid Region of Northwest China in Resent 50 Years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2007,21(8):48-53. |
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| Authors: | REN Zhao-xia YANG Da-yuan |
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| Abstract: | Based on the precipitation data day by day of 21 representative stations during the period of 1951 to 2000,used trend coefficient methodand percentile threshold methodto analyze the trends of minimum temperature,maximum temperature,extreme precipitation and extreme climate changes in the arid regions of Northwest China.The results show that:(1) temperature appears to be ascending(0.22℃/10a) in recent 50 years,especiallyin the Chaidam Basin and North Xinjiang,the jump point happened in 1986.Seasonal temperatures presented increasing trend,mainly in autumn and winter.Precipitation appears to be ascending(3.2mm/10a),the obvious increase of summer precipitation.Precipitation presented increasing trend each subarea,especiallyin North Xinjiang.(2) There is a remarkable decreasing trend of days of minimum temperature during the period,but days of maximum temperature have increasing trend in the arid regions of Northwest China in resent 40 years.There is increasing trend of annualminimum temperature,annualmaximum temperature has decreasing trend. Annualminimum temperature has increasing trend,annualmaximum temperature has decreasing trend in North and south Xinjiang;annualminimum temperature and annualmaximum temperature have increasing trend in Hexi passageway and Chaidam Basin.Days of extreme precipitation increase 2 days in resent 40 years.(3) climate warming have advantageousand disadvantageous influence onagriculture,precipitation increasing and extreme climate change decrease advantageous influence onagriculture. |
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| Keywords: | trend of climate change the arid regions of Northwest China agriculture influence |
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