| 耦合MOP与FLUS模型的杭州市土地利用格局优化及权衡分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱从谋,苑韶峰,杨丽霞.耦合MOP与FLUS模型的杭州市土地利用格局优化及权衡分析[J].农业工程学报,2023,39(16):235-244. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱从谋 苑韶峰 杨丽霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江工商大学公共管理学院，杭州 310018;浙江财经大学公共管理学院，杭州 310018 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41871181）；浙江省属高校基本科研业务费项目(XT202209) |
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| 摘 要： | 调整优化城市土地利用结构与布局,实现社会经济发展和生态保护的协同优化是城市土地利用规划管理和决策的关键。该研究使用多目标规划(multiple objective planning,MOP)模型和未来土地利用模拟(future land use simulation model,FLUS)模型相结合的方法,运用权衡分析制定多目标权衡下的土地利用优化配置情景方案,以期为杭州市土地利用优化配置规划和管理提供科学参考。结果表明:1)通过耦合MOP模型和FLUS模型,从土地利用生态-经济转化效率视角可以有效实现土地利用结构和布局的优化配置情景模拟。2)通过比较单位经济效益的减少比例可产生的生态效益增加比例,确定土地利用经济与生态效益权重比例为4:6的发展情景是权衡土地利用社会、经济和生态效益下的杭州市土地利用结构最优方案。3)最优土地利用结构方案的建设用地扩张规模介于经济发展优化和生态保护优先情景方案间,耕地规模较其他情景方案减少幅度放缓,在空间上减少对生态用地的侵占,土地利用景观格局破碎度和复杂性降低。该研究的方法和结果可为区域土地利用规划决策和可持续发展提供理论与应用参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 格局优化 权衡分析 MOP模型 FLUS模型 杭州市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/5/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/7/24 0:00:00 |
Spatial optimization of land use pattern and trade-off analysis in Hangzhou City by coupling MOP and FLUS model |
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| ZHU Congmou,YUAN Shaofeng,YANG Lixia.Spatial optimization of land use pattern and trade-off analysis in Hangzhou City by coupling MOP and FLUS model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2023,39(16):235-244. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Congmou YUAN Shaofeng YANG Lixia |
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| Institution: | School of Public Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China; School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China |
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| Abstract: | Optimal structure and layout of urban land use can greatly contribute to the planning management and decision-making on the coordinated optimization of social and economic development, and ecological protection. Since rapid urban expansion can improve the regional social and economic levels, there were also many prominent issues, including the harsh contradiction between resource supply and demand, encroachment on farmland, ecological degradation, water and atmospheric environmental pollution. Existing studies have overlooked the trade-off analysis of land use economic, social, and ecological benefits, thus reducing the guiding role of land use patterns in the optimization scheme. Taking Hangzhou City of China as an example, the multiple objective planning (MOP) and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model were coupled to trade-off the land use economic, social, and ecological benefits for the optimal plan of land use structure. The FLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2035. The spatial optimization plan of land use was obtained to compare the different development scenarios. The results showed that: 1) The optimal configuration scenario simulation of land use structure and layout was effectively achieved from the perspective of land use eco-economic transformation efficiency using the coupled MOP and FLUS model. The decision-making suitable for cities was then made to formulate the multiple development goals. 2) A comparison was conducted on the proportion of the decrease in the unit economic benefits and the increase in the ecological benefits. The development scenario was determined with a 4:6 weight ratio between land use economic and ecological benefits. The optimal plan was obtained for the land use structure, in order to trade off the social, economic, and ecological benefits of land use. The economic benefit of land use was the highest at 3 694.2 billion yuan under this development scenario, whereas, the ecological benefit of land use was 44.7 billion yuan, indicating the high-level total benefit of land use. Meanwhile, there was the 163 450 hectares expansion scale of construction land in the optimal land use structure scheme, which was between the scenario of economic development optimization and ecological protection priority. There was a decrease in the reduction in the farmland scale, thus reducing the occupation of important ecological land. 3) The simulation accuracy of the FLUS model was 89.36% suitable for land use in this case. In terms of the land use spatial pattern, the expansion of construction land was concentrated mainly in the eastern main urban area and the surrounding areas. By contrast, the slow expansion of construction land was found in the variation in other land use types in the western region. Moreover, there was a more compact expansion pattern of construction land in this scenario, compared with the rest development scenarios, indicating the fragmented and less complex landscape patterns and high aggregation of patches. The findings can provide theoretical and practical references for regional land use planning, decision-making and sustainable development. |
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| Keywords: | land use pattern optimization trade-off analysis MOP model FLUS model Hangzhou City |
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