| 我国蔬菜价格周期性波动规律分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭力野.我国蔬菜价格周期性波动规律分析[J].中国蔬菜,2014,1(1):41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭力野 |
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| 作者单位： | （中商流通生产力促进中心，北京 100006） |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来，我国蔬菜价格波动频繁，卖难、买贵现象时有发生。本文采用HP 滤波法和BP 滤波法，分析了我国2004～2013 年蔬菜及主要品种的价格波动规律。通过分析得出，我国蔬菜价格呈总体增长的线性趋势，季节性变化特征明显，无明显随机性波动特征；产区集中的耐贮品种具有较明显的价格波动周期，季节性波动相对明显；产区分散的耐贮品种无明显的价格波动周期，季节性波动较明显；大棚菜和叶菜类价格波动受天气因素影响较大，季节性波动明显，无明显周期波动特征。
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| 关 键 词： | 蔬菜价格 周期波动 HP 滤波法 BP 滤波法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-08-23; |
Studies on Vegetable Cyclical Price Fluctuation Law in China |
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| GUO,Li-Ye.Studies on Vegetable Cyclical Price Fluctuation Law in China[J].China Vegetables,2014,1(1):41. |
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| Authors: | GUO Li-Ye |
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| Institution: | （Distribution Productivity Promotion Center of China Commerce，Beijing 100006, China） |
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| Abstract: | During recent years, vegetable prices have been fluctuating frequently in China; and difficult selling and expensive buying has occurred from time to time．By virtue of HP and BP filter methods, this paper quantifies vegetable and its main varieties to find out long-term change factors, seasonal factors, circulating
factors and random factors affecting vegetable prices, and then analyzes the law of price fluctuation．The results of analysis indicate that vegetable prices show the linear trend of overall long-term growth, with significant seasonal fluctuation but no evident random fluctuation．Storage tolerant varieties in centralized producing areas have evident price fluctuation cycle with relatively distinct seasonal changes; while those in scattered producing
areas have no obvious price fluctuation cycle but with evident seasonal changes．Weather factors exert great influences on price fluctuation of greenhouse vegetables and leafy vegetables, with characteristics of significant seasonal fluctuation but no obvious cyclical fluctuation characteristics． |
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| Keywords: | Cyclical fluctuation HP filter method BP filter method |
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