| 中国玉米市场形势分析与未来10年展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 习银生,;杨皓森,;张玉梅.中国玉米市场形势分析与未来10年展望[J].农业展望,2014(9):4-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 习银生 ;杨皓森 ;张玉梅 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810; [2]哥伦比亚大学 美国纽约 10027;,北京100810; [3]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 2013年,中国玉米产量再创新高,消费需求相对低迷,进出口同比下降,供求关系较为宽松,价格总体弱势运行。预计未来10年,中国玉米生产继续稳步增长,消费需求增速较快但将明显放缓,价格总体继续上涨,玉米进口将进一步扩大。最后,指出影响未来玉米市场走势的因素主要包括气象、政策、贸易以及通胀、汇率等不确定性因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 玉米 种植面积 供求 贸易 价格 政策 影响因素 展望 |
China＇s Maize Market and Its Prospect for the Next Decade |
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| Institution: | Xi Yinsheng, Yang Haosen, Zhang Yumei (1Research Center of Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100810; 2University of Columbia, New York, 10027 America; 3Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081 ) |
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| Abstract: | In 2013, maize production reached another high record, while the consumer demand was relatively stagnant, the import and export declined year-on-year, the relationship between supply and demand relaxed and the overall price ran under a weak situation. For the next decade, we predicted that maize production would take a steady rise, consumer demand growth was slowing down, overall price was going up and maize import would further expand. Finally, the authors pointed out the factors influencing the further maize market were weather, policies, trade and some uncertain factors such as inflation, exchange rates, and SO on. |
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| Keywords: | maize planting area supply and demand trade price policy influencing factor outlook |
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