| 修正的灰色模型在森林生物灾害发生面积预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 苓建强,周英梅,温俊宝,许志春,骆有庆.修正的灰色模型在森林生物灾害发生面积预测中的应用[J].中国森林病虫,2011,30(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 苓建强 周英梅 温俊宝 许志春 骆有庆 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 长江学者与创新团队发展计划(PCSIRT0607) |
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| 摘 要： | 以2000—2008年《中国林业统计年鉴》中生物灾害发生面积为依据,采用原序列和残差序列进行灰色动态预测模型GM(1,1)建模,分别建立林业病虫鼠害发生总面积、病害发生面积、虫害发生面积、鼠害发生面积、松毛虫发生面积、杨树食叶害虫发生面积和杨树蛀干害虫发生面积及各指标重度发生面积的灰色预测模型,对森林生物灾害发生面积进行预测。通过精度检验,应用残差序列所建的14个指标模型中,有3个模型非常准确(平均相对误差小于1%),5个模型很准确(平均相对误差在1%~5%之间),5个模型较准确(平均相对误差在5%~10%),只有1个模型准确率较低(平均相对误差大于10%)。所建立的模型适用于发生面积趋势预测,准确率非常高,预测结果有较高置信度,且给出了5 a预测结果。该研究为我国森林生物灾害预测提供了新的途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 发生面积 森林生物灾害 灰色模型 预测 |
Application of improved grey model in forecasting occurrence area of forest bio-disaster |
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| LING Jianqiang,et al..Application of improved grey model in forecasting occurrence area of forest bio-disaster[J].Forest Pest and Disease,2011,30(1). |
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| Authors: | LING Jianqiang |
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| Institution: | LING Jianqiang,et al.(Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation of Ministry of Education,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the publication data from China Forestry Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2008,the grey dynamic forecast model GM(1,1) was established with raw data and residual error series.The models of total occurrence area of forest bio-disasters,the occurrence area of diseases,the occurrence area of insect pests,the occurrence area of rodent pests,the occurrence area of pine caterpillars,the occurrence area of poplar defoliators and the occurrence area of poplar stem borers were established respectively and ... |
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| Keywords: | occurrence area forest bio-disaster grey model prediction |
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