Sensitivity analyses for four pesticide leaching models |
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| Authors: | Dubus Igor G Brown Colin D Beulke Sabine |
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| Institution: | Cranfield Centre for EcoChemistry, Cranfield University, Silsoe, Beds MK45 4DT, UK. i.dubus@brgm.fr |
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| Abstract: | Sensitivity analyses using a one-at-a-time approach were carried out for leaching models which have been widely used for pesticide registration in Europe (PELMO, PRZM, PESTLA and MACRO). Four scenarios were considered for simulation of the leaching of two theoretical pesticides in a sandy loam and a clay loam soil, each with a broad distribution across Europe. Input parameters were varied within bounds reflecting their uncertainty and the influence of these variations on model predictions was investigated for accumulated percolation at 1-m depth and pesticide loading in leachate. Predictions for the base-case scenarios differed between chromatographic models and the preferential flow model MACRO for which large but transient pesticide losses were predicted in the clay loam. Volumes of percolated water predicted by the four models were affected by a small number of input parameters and to a small extent only, suggesting that meteorological variables will be the main drivers of water balance predictions. In contrast to percolation, predictions for pesticide loss were found to be sensitive to a large number of input parameters and to a much greater extent. Parameters which had the largest influence on the prediction of pesticide loss were generally those related to chemical sorption (Freundlich exponent nf and distribution coefficient Kf) and degradation (either degradation rates or DT50, QTEN value). Nevertheless, a significant influence of soil properties (field capacity, bulk density or parameters defining the boundary between flow domains in MACRO) was also noted in at least one scenario for all models. Large sensitivities were reported for all models, especially PELMO and PRZM, and sensitivity was greater where only limited leaching was simulated. Uncertainty should be addressed in risk assessment procedures for crop-protection products. |
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| Keywords: | pesticide leaching model sensitivity uncertainty calibration |
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