| 黔南地区气象因子与森林火灾发生次数之间的关系 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖云丹,鞠洪波,张雄清,纪平.黔南地区气象因子与森林火灾发生次数之间的关系[J].林业科学,2011,47(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖云丹 鞠洪波 张雄清 纪平 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所 北京100091 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所科研基金(IFRIT200804) |
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| 摘 要： | 对黔南区春季防火期森林火灾数据进行分析,分别引入Poisson回归模型、负二项模型、零膨胀负二项模型和Hurdle模型拟合该地区火险天气森林火灾发生数,并对这些模型进行逐步筛选。结果表明:Poisson回归模型不适用于处理过度离散的数据,负二项回归模型相对于Poisson回归模型,比较适用于过离散数据;但是对于零个数过多的数据,这2类模型拟合效果较差,零膨胀负二项模型和Hurdle模型对这类数据有很好的解决办法。零膨胀负二项模型和Hurdle模型拟合效果优于其他2种模型,而且Hurdle模型好于零膨胀负二项模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林火灾 火险天气 Poisson回归模型 负二项模型 零膨胀负二项模型 Hurdle模型 |
Relationship between Fire-Danger Weather and Forest Fire in Qiannan Area |
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| Xiao Yundan,Ju Hongbo,Zhang Xiongqing,Ji Ping.Relationship between Fire-Danger Weather and Forest Fire in Qiannan Area[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2011,47(10). |
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| Authors: | Xiao Yundan Ju Hongbo Zhang Xiongqing Ji Ping |
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| Institution: | Xiao Yundan Ju Hongbo Zhang Xiongqing Ji Ping(Institute of Forest Resources Information Techniques,CAF Beijing 100091) |
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| Abstract: | In this study,based on data of the forest fire occurrence and meteorological variables in spring fireproofing period in Qiannan area,Poisson regression model,negative binomial model,zero-inflated negative binomial model and Hurdle model were respectively employed to predict the forest fires under fire-danger climate,and those models were compared with each other based on the prediction.The results showed that:Poisson regression model did not fit well into the over-dispersion data.Negative binomial distribut... |
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| Keywords: | forest fire fire-danger weather Poisson regression model negative binomial model zero-inflated negative binomial model Hurdle model |
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