| 基于灰色层次分析法的长输管道风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯云飞,孟繁博,朱富斌,陈杨.基于灰色层次分析法的长输管道风险评价[J].油气储运,2013(12):1289-1294. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯云飞 孟繁博 朱富斌 陈杨 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]煤炭工业合肥设计研究院,安徽合肥230041 [2]丹东华润燃气有限公司,辽宁丹东118000 [3]中国煤炭科工集团重庆设计研究院,重庆400010 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过油气长输管道风险评价指标（因素）体系的综合分析，将灰色理论和层次分析方法结合，对管道风险指标因素进行定量评价。建立了基于灰色层次分析法的油气管道定量评价模型，用层次分析法确定指标的权重区间，并结合专家评分，对管道进行风险评定。将此方法应用于盘锦输油管道（曙光首站-东郭阀室段），结果表明：最大危害因素为第三方破坏，其次为腐蚀破坏，而自然灾害和管道本身存在缺陷相对为较安全因素。灰色层次分析法综合了灰色理论和层次分析方法的优势，不仅可以对风险因素进行细化分析，而且灰色理论可以对各个指标因素的权重进行更灵活的处理，使得评价模型和评价过程更符合客观规律，评价结果更加准确可靠。（表6，参12）
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| 关 键 词： | 油气长输管道 灰色层次分析 风险分析 |
Risk assessment of long-distance pipeline based on gray analytic hierarchy method |
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| Feng Yunfei,Meng Fanbo,Zhu Fubin,Chen Yang.Risk assessment of long-distance pipeline based on gray analytic hierarchy method[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2013(12):1289-1294. |
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| Authors: | Feng Yunfei Meng Fanbo Zhu Fubin Chen Yang |
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| Institution: | 1. Hefei Design Research Institute for Coal Industry, Hefei, Anhui, 230041; 2. Dandong China Resources Gas Co. Ltd., Dandong, Liaoning, 118000; 3. China Coal Technology ＆ Engineering Group, Chongqing Design ＆ Research Institute, Chongqing, 400010) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the comprehensive analysis of long-distance pipeline risk assessment index system, this paper evaluates the pipeline risk indexes by combining gray theory with hierarchy analysis process. Oil and gas pipeline quantitative evaluation model based on gray analytic hierarchy method is established, the range of indexes weight is worked out by using analysis hierarchy process, which together with expert grading, are used to evaluate pipeline risks. This method has been applied to Panjin Oil Pipeline （Shuguang Initial Station-Dongguo Valve Chamber）, and the result shows that the third-party interferer is the most serious risk, followed by corrosion, while natural disasters and defects in pipeline itself are relatively safer factors. Gray analytic hierarchy method with both advantages of gray theory and analytic hierarchy process, can not only give zoom analysis of risk factors, but also deal with the weights of every factor more flexibly, making the evaluation model and process more consistent with objective law, and the evaluation result more accurate and reliable. （6 Tables, 12 References） |
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| Keywords: | long-distance oil and gas pipeline gray hierarchy hierarchy risk analysis |
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