| 农业气候资源变化对陇东塬区旱作粮食的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周忠文,刘英,张谋草,张天峰,王燕凌,张红妮,韩博.农业气候资源变化对陇东塬区旱作粮食的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2023,39(3):55-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周忠文 刘英 张谋草 张天峰 王燕凌 张红妮 韩博 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局创新发展专项“农业气象试验站区域联合试验”(CXFZ2021Z059); 甘肃省气象科研项目“陇东玉米对气候变化的响应及适应机制”(Ms2023-13); 甘肃省庆阳市科技计划“气候变化对陇东粮食安全的影响及应对”(QY2021B-S015) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究气候变化对陇东塬区旱作粮食的影响，利用陇东塬区1961—2020连续60年气候因子资料，采用线性回归、多项式函数、气候倾向率等方法，分析农业气候资源变化特征，进而分析80%保证率下农业气候资源变化对主要粮食作物冬小麦、玉米的影响。结果表明：日均气温稳定通过0℃和10℃的初日呈提前趋势，终日呈现推后趋势，初终日期间持续天数呈现极显著增加趋势；80%保证率下，日均气温稳定通过0℃和10℃初终日期间降水量随年代的增加呈现递减趋势，≥0℃和≥10℃积温随年代增加呈现增加趋势，日照时数随年代增加呈现递减趋势。农业气候资源变化造成小麦播种推迟，成熟提前，但生育期缩短主要体现在越冬期缩短上，有效生长期得到保证；夏季热量资源增加保证了玉米生长，成熟期提早为小秋作物收获后的秋播工作赢得了时间，有效扩大了作物种植面积。陇东塬区小麦、玉米气候产量与生育期内降水量呈显著正相关，水份影响着陇东粮食产量的生育全过程，水资源短缺是陇东塬区作物生长的制约因素；平均气温对小麦、玉米是不显著的负效应，温度是重要的影响因子；有效积温和日照时数对小麦、玉米的影响不一致，玉米受气候不确定性影响大于小麦。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业气候资源 陇东塬区 旱作粮食 影响分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-03-10 |
The Influence of Agroclimatic Resource Change on Dry Farming Grain in Eastern Gansu Tableland |
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| ZHOU Zhongwen,LIU Ying,ZHANG Moucao,ZHANG Tianfeng,WANG Yanling,ZHANG Hongni,HAN Bo.The Influence of Agroclimatic Resource Change on Dry Farming Grain in Eastern Gansu Tableland[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2023,39(3):55-60. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Zhongwen LIU Ying ZHANG Moucao ZHANG Tianfeng WANG Yanling ZHANG Hongni HAN Bo |
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| Abstract: | To study the impact of climate change on dry farming grain in eastern Gansu tableland, the climate factor data of 60 years from 1961 to 2020 were used, the linear regression, polynomial function and climate tendency rate methods were used to analyze the characteristics of agroclimatic resource change and the effect on winter wheat and maize under 80% guarantee rate. The results showed that the first day of average daily temperature stabilized at 0℃ and 10℃ showed an earlier trend, while the last day showed a later trend, and the duration increased significantly. Under the guarantee rate of 80%, during the period that the average daily temperature was stable through 0℃ and 10℃, the precipitation showed a decreasing trend with the advancing of years, accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ showed an increasing trend with the advancing of years, and sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend. The change of agroclimatic resources caused wheat sowing delay and ripening advance, the shortening of the growth period was mainly reflected in the shortening of overwintering period, and the effective growth period was guaranteed. The increase of heat resources in summer ensured the growth of maize, and the earlier maturity period gained time for the autumn sowing after the harvest of early autumn crops, which effectively expanded the planting area of crops. In eastern Gansu tableland, there was a significantly positive correlation between the climatic yield of wheat and maize and the precipitation during the growing period. Water affected the whole process of grain yield, and water shortage was the limiting factor of crop growth. Average temperature had non significantly negative effect on wheat and maize, and temperature was an important factor. The effects of effective accumulated temperature and sunshine hours on wheat and maize were different, and maize was more affected by climate uncertainty than wheat. |
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| Keywords: | agroclimatic resources eastern Gansu tableland dry farming grain impact analysis |
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