| 2005～2015年吉林省农机装备水平预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李行,白丽,马成林,钟文才,杨文挺.2005～2015年吉林省农机装备水平预测分析[J].农业机械学报,2005,36(11):83-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李行 白丽 马成林 钟文才 杨文挺 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林省农业机械研究院;吉林大学生物与农业工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 吉林省科技发展计划资助项目（项目编号：20030612） |
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| 摘 要： | 收集、整理了1978～2002年吉林省农机装备的历史数据,采用指数平滑、移动平均和回归预测等方法进行试算后,选取拟合程度较高的指数平滑预测法建立了预测模型,预测了2005～2015年吉林省农机装备（如农机总动力、大中型拖拉机及其配套机具、小型拖拉机及其配套机具）的发展水平.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业机械 发展预测 指数平滑法 |
| 收稿时间： | 06 2 2004 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年6月2日 |
Forecast of Agricultural Equipment Level of Jilin Province from 2005 to 2015 |
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| Li Hang,Bai Li,Ma Chenglin,Zhong Wencai,Yang Wenting.Forecast of Agricultural Equipment Level of Jilin Province from 2005 to 2015[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery,2005,36(11):83-86. |
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| Authors: | Li Hang Bai Li Ma Chenglin Zhong Wencai Yang Wenting |
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| Institution: | 1. Jilin Academy of Agricultural Machinery; 2. Jilin University |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of the data on Jilin Province agricultural machinery from 1978 to 2002, we established the predicting models by the exponential smoothing method to forecast the amounts of total motive power of agricultural machines, large and medium size tractor and its implements, and small size tractor and its implements. The predicted results show that the total motive power of agricultural machines in Jilin Province attains to 13. 56 million kilowatts in 2005, 17.01 million kilowatts in 2010 and 20.46 million kilowatts in 2015, and that the total amount of tractor attains to 576 696 sets in 2005, 741 736 sets in 2010 and 914 126 sets in 2015. |
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| Keywords: | Agricultural machine Developing forecast Exponential smoothing |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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