| 气候变化对华北粮食主产区水资源的影响及适应对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 王国庆,金君良,鲍振鑫,刘翠善,严小林.气候变化对华北粮食主产区水资源的影响及适应对策[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(8):898-903. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王国庆 金君良 鲍振鑫 刘翠善 严小林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 南京 210029
2. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心 南京 210029;1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 南京 210029
2. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心 南京 210029;1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 南京 210029
2. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心 南京 210029;1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 南京 210029
2. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心 南京 210029;1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 南京 210029
2. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心 南京 210029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)气候变化专项计划项目(2010CB951103)、国家自然科学基金项目(41330854, 41371063)、江苏省"333工程"培养资金资助项目(BRA2012203)和中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y513009)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化已成为目前全球最为重要的环境问题之一,气候变化将通过加速水文循环进而对区域水资源产生重要影响。采用统计分析和数学模拟方法,分析了气候变化对中国华北粮食主产区水资源的可能影响。结果表明:过去50年黄河中下游地区和海河流域河川径流呈现显著性减少趋势,淮河流域及黄河上游河川径流为非显著性变化;其中,1980年以来海河流域实测径流量较前期减少超过50%。未来30~50年华北粮食主产区气温将持续上升,降水的不确定性更大,总体呈现弱增加趋势。受气温升高和降水变化影响,未来几十年水资源总体以略微偏少为主,但存在区域性增多的可能;在RCPP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,区域水资源较基准期(1961—1990)分别变化-1.3%、1.0%和-2.3%。在空间分布上,黄河中游水资源可能略有增多,但淮河和海河流域水资源很可能进一步减少,华北粮食主产区水资源供需矛盾可能会因气候变化而更为突出。加强节水型社会建设、水利工程建设以及充分利用非传统水源是该地区未来适应气候变化的核心工作。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 华北粮食主产区 水资源 适应对策 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/4/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/4/30 0:00:00 |
Impact of climate change on water resources and adaptation strategies in the main grain production belt of the North China |
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| WANG Guoqing,JIN Junliang,BAO Zhenxin,LIU Cuishan and YAN Xiaolin.Impact of climate change on water resources and adaptation strategies in the main grain production belt of the North China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(8):898-903. |
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| Authors: | WANG Guoqing JIN Junliang BAO Zhenxin LIU Cuishan and YAN Xiaolin |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China 2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China 2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China 2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China 2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China 2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | Climate change, as one of the important global environmental issues, distorts the hydrologic cycle and therefore has significant implications for regional water resources. The grain production belt of the North China mainly consisting of the Yellow River Basin, Hai River Basin and Huai River Basin is the region most vulnerable to climate change in China. The major water issues in this region (including severe shortage of water resources and increasing regional flooding) have attracted significant attentions from both the central government and local communities. It is therefore critical to analyze future trends in water resources and seek for adaptive strategies to climate change in the region. Using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test, variations of historical runoff recorded during the period 1950-2010 at ten key hydrometric stations on the main streams of the Yellow River, Hai River and Huai River were analyzed. Based on seven GCM projects under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model was used to simulate future water resources in these basins. Using 1961-1990 as the baseline period, changes in future water resources were analyzed for each decade. The results suggested that the recorded runoffs in the middle and lower reaches of both the Yellow River Basin and the Hai River Basin significantly decreased in the last 50 years. There was a insignificant change in the Huai River Basin and in the upper Yellow River Basin. For the Hai River Basin in particular, recorded runoff after 1980 deceased by over 50% compared to the value in 1961. While projected temperature steadily rose in the next 30-50 years, precipitation slightly increased over the period. Changes in water yields under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were estimated to change by ?1.3%, 1.0% and ?2.3%, respectively, distorting the spatial distribution of water resources in the region. Water resources in the middle Yellow River Basin increased while those in both the Hai River Basin and the Huai River Basin decreased, particularly under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. The degree of water shortage in the main grain production belt of the North China was aggravated by the simulated climate change. The core activities of adaptation to climate change included enhancement of the construction of water-saving society, the full use of non-traditional water resources and also the speeding up of the planning and implementation of water conservancy projects in the region. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Main grain production belt of the North China Water resource Adaptation strategy |
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