| 一种简易预测模型的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐芸,秦秀华,苏杰南.一种简易预测模型的应用[J].林业调查规划,2002,27(2):11-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐芸 秦秀华 苏杰南 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西林校,广西,柳州,545003 |
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| 摘 要： | 预测是各个部门制订工作计划的一项基本工作 ,是指对未来活动的科学推测。预测的正确与否取决于对预测模型的分析。而预测的方法有“最小二乘法”、“卡尔曼滤波法”、“最小方差预测法”、“指数平滑法”等等 ,但是以上方法的特点是模型复杂 ,计算工作量大。据此介绍了两种比较简单的预测模型即“灰色预测模型”及“递推及残差识别预测模型” ,其结果是一致的
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| 关 键 词： | 预测模型 灰色预测 递推及残差识别预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-3168(2002)02-0011-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年8月28日 |
Application of A Simple Forecasting Model |
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| TANG Yun,QIN Xiu_hua,SU Jie_nan.Application of A Simple Forecasting Model[J].Forest Inventory and Planning,2002,27(2):11-15. |
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| Authors: | TANG Yun QIN Xiu_hua SU Jie_nan |
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| Abstract: | Forecast is a basic procedure in working out a plan, is a scientific prediction for the activities in the future. The analysis on forecasting model is very critical for the correctness of the forecast. There is several methods could be used for forecasting, such as least square procedure, Kalman filter model, minimum variance forecasting and index smoothing forecasting etc. These methods share the characteristics of complex model and big amount of calculation. Two relevant simple methods namely gray prediction, recurrence and residual error identification forecasting model were introduced. Moreover, the forecasting results achieved by these two methods were the same. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting model gray prediction recurrence and residual error identification forecasting |
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