| 河北沧州金丝小枣成熟期浆烂裂果灾害风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王琼,何璇,常志坤.河北沧州金丝小枣成熟期浆烂裂果灾害风险评估[J].中国农业气象,2011(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王琼 何璇 常志坤 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省沧州市气象局; |
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| 摘 要： | 以降水和日照这两个气象要素作为研究对象,基于模糊数学和信息扩散理论,通过沧州1990-2009年9月中旬-10月中旬的降水量和日照时数的变化范围,离散出降水量和日照时数的风险水平值,计算出由于降水和日照引起灾害的风险估计值,结合小枣成熟晾晒期浆烂裂果灾害的调查资料进行研究。结果表明,9月中旬-10月由于降水因素发生浆烂裂果灾害的风险概率为4～5年一遇;9月中旬-10月日照的偏差不会造成小枣成熟期浆烂裂果灾害风险。此外,以降水量≥80mm的概率估计值作为小枣发生浆烂裂果灾害的临界值,确定出枣农防御灾害的时段和及时采收的时间,利于进行防灾减灾。
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| 关 键 词： | 金丝小枣 浆烂裂果 信息扩散 风险评估 |
Risk Assessment of the Flesh Rotten and Fruit Cracked Damage in the Mature Stage of Cangzhou Gold Silk Jujube in Hebei Province |
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| WANG Qiong,HE Xuan,CHANG Zhi-kun.Risk Assessment of the Flesh Rotten and Fruit Cracked Damage in the Mature Stage of Cangzhou Gold Silk Jujube in Hebei Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011(Z1). |
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| Authors: | WANG Qiong HE Xuan CHANG Zhi-kun |
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| Institution: | WANG Qiong,HE Xuan,CHANG Zhi-kun (Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Cangzhou 061001,China) |
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| Abstract: | By using two meteorological factors of precipitation and sunshine as the study object,and to disperse the value of the risk level of precipitation and sunshine duration and calculate the disaster risk estimation caused by rainfall and sunlight,this research is conducted on the basis of fuzzy math and information diffusion theory and precipitation and sunshine hours in mid-September to mid-October from 1990 to 2009,combined with the survey of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube in the mature ... |
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| Keywords: | Gold silk jujube Flesh rotten and fruit cracked Information diffusion Risk assessment |
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