| 新疆参考作物蒸散发趋势转折与大尺度气候变率的关系 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭竞阳,王雅琦,张宝忠,魏征,韩松俊,刘文辉,李果.新疆参考作物蒸散发趋势转折与大尺度气候变率的关系[J].农业工程学报,2023,39(13):123-130. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭竞阳 王雅琦 张宝忠 魏征 韩松俊 刘文辉 李果 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室，北京 100038;2. 国家节水灌溉北京工程技术研究中心，北京 100048 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（52130906；51979287）；中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目（ID0145B022021）；新疆生产建设兵团科技攻关项目（2019AB035） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 参考作物蒸散发(reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)能够全面反映一个地区的蒸散发能力，在农业高效节水灌溉等领域得到了广泛应用。近年来大多数研究通常将ET0与局地气象因子的变化进行敏感性分析，忽略了大尺度气候变率对ET0的遥相关影响。该研究基于新疆地区84个气象站点的逐日气象资料和气候变率指数，采用多元线性回归和Cramer’s突变检验等方法，探究了厄尔尼诺南方涛动(El Nino-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)、印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)、太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)和北大西洋多年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)等大尺度气候变率与新疆地区ET0趋势转折的关系。结果表明：1960—2020年ET0总体呈下降趋势，平均递减率为0.75 mm/a;1998年为ET0
|
| 关 键 词： | 蒸散发 气候变化 太平洋年代际振荡 北大西洋多年代际振荡 新疆地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/11/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/5/5 0:00:00 |
Relationships between reference crop evapotranspiration trend transitions and large-scale climate variability in Xinjiang of Western China |
| |
| GUO Jingyang,WANG Yaqi,ZHANG Baozhong,WEI Zheng,HAN Songjun,LIU Wenhui,LI Guo.Relationships between reference crop evapotranspiration trend transitions and large-scale climate variability in Xinjiang of Western China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2023,39(13):123-130. |
| |
| Authors: | GUO Jingyang WANG Yaqi ZHANG Baozhong WEI Zheng HAN Songjun LIU Wenhui LI Guo |
| |
| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;2. National Center for Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research-Beijing, Beijing 100048, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) can fully represent the evapotranspiration capacity in areas, such as efficient water-saving irrigation in agriculture. Most studies have typically conducted sensitivity analyses of changing ET0 in the local meteorological factors, without considering the remotely correlated effects of large-scale climate variability on ET0. Large-scale climate variability generated by the ocean is a significant driver of global and regional climate change, indicating the non-negligible impact on the evolution pattern of ET0. However, it is still lacking in the influence of large-scale climate variability on ET0, leading to the inaccurate attribution of ET0 changes. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationships between the large-scale climate variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with the ET0 variability characteristics in Xinjiang region. The daily meteorological data and climate variability indices were collected from 84 meteorological stations using multiple linear regression and Cramer''s mutation test. The results indicate that the ET0 showed a decreasing trend from 1960 to 2020, with an average decreasing rate of 0.75 mm/a; the year 1998 was the mutation of the ET0, and the ET0 showed an obvious decreasing trend from 1960 to 1997, with an average decreasing rate of 2.50 mm/a, and then turned to an outstandingly increasing trend from 1998 to 2020, with an average increasing rate of 3.18 mm/a. The multivariate linear correlation results show that the ET0 was negatively correlated with the RH with a regression coefficients of -0.46, and positively correlated with the U, T, and Rn with regression coefficients of 0.95, 0.36, and 0.20, where the changes of ET0 were mainly dominated by the changes of U. On the seasonal scale, the interannual variation trend of ET0 in the four seasons was more consistent with the annual cumulative ET0 variation trend, which decreased at the rate of 0.01, 0.54, 0.23, and 0.01 mm/a in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively, whereas, the trend change in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons occurred in the mid-1990s, respectively. PDO was the main variable affecting the trend shift of ET0, where the regression coefficients between the two was -0.34. There was also a significant negative correlation of U with PDO and AMO, with regression coefficients of -0.31 and -0.34, respectively. The PDO was shifted from a positive to a negative phase in 1998, resulting in the wind speed shifting from a downward to an upward trend, which in turn led to the trend shift of ET0 in the Xinjiang region in 1998. The shift of AMO from a negative to a positive phase strengthened the trend change of wind speed, while the effects of ENSO and IOD on wind speed were relatively weak. The negative phase of PDO was achieved in the spatial regression of sea surface temperature (SST) with ET0, which further verified the influence of PDO on the trend shift of ET0 in the Xinjiang region of western China. |
| |
| Keywords: | evapotranspiration Climatic change Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Xinjiang region |
|
| 点击此处可从《农业工程学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《农业工程学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
