| 基于云模型可能性测度的引水灌溉工程调度风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈海涛,全磊,王文川,陈晓楠,段春青.基于云模型可能性测度的引水灌溉工程调度风险评估[J].节水灌溉,2019(1):112-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈海涛 全磊 王文川 陈晓楠 段春青 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电大学水利学院;河南机电职业学院电气工程学院;南水北调中线干线工程建设管理局;北京市郊区水务事务中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省高校科技创新团队项目(181RTSTHN009) |
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| 摘 要： | 输水调度是引水灌溉工程最为核心和关键业务,为确保工程安全平稳运行,对调度风险进行深入研究和系统分析是十分必要的。总结分析影响引水工程调度安全众多因素,将调度风险归纳为调度制度风险、调度人员风险、调度技术风险、调度协调风险4方面,细化各类风险因子,建立了调度风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,提出了基于云模型可能性测度风险评估方法,利用正态分布云模型量化风险因子的重要程度和效用值,通过模糊积分计算综合风险程度。实例表明,建立的引水灌溉工程调度风险评价指标体系和评估方法,能够较全面、合理反映调度运行安全影响因素,综合考虑了风险评估中的模糊性和随机性,操作性强,为风险评估研究提供了一种新思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 长距离输水调度 云模型 可能性测度 风险评估 |
Risk Evaluation of Irrigation Water Transfer Project Dispatching Based on Cloud Model and Possibility Measures |
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| CHEN Hai-tao,QUAN Lei,WANG Wen-chuan,CHEN Xiao-nan,DUAN Chun-qing.Risk Evaluation of Irrigation Water Transfer Project Dispatching Based on Cloud Model and Possibility Measures[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2019(1):112-117. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Hai-tao QUAN Lei WANG Wen-chuan CHEN Xiao-nan DUAN Chun-qing |
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| Institution: | (School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China;Henan Mechanical and Electrical Vocational College,Zhengzhou 451191,China;Administration of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Water Affairs Centre for Suburbs,Beijing 100195,China) |
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| Abstract: | CHEN Hai-tao;QUAN Lei;WANG Wen-chuan;CHEN Xiao-nan;DUAN Chun-qing(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China;Henan Mechanical and Electrical Vocational College,Zhengzhou 451191,China;Administration of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Water Affairs Centre for Suburbs,Beijing 100195,China) |
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| Keywords: | long distance water delivery dispatching cloud model possibility measures risk evaluation |
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