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安徽省粮食单产趋势变化及主要经济因素影响分析
引用本文:高金兰,马晓群,张庆国,许莹.安徽省粮食单产趋势变化及主要经济因素影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(3):108-115.
作者姓名:高金兰  马晓群  张庆国  许莹
作者单位:1. 安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥230036
2. 安徽省气象科学研究所/安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥230031
3. 安徽农业大学理学院,合肥230036
基金项目:2010年气象行业专项“淮河流域主要农作物旱涝损失精细化评估技术”(GYHY201006027)
摘    要:为了揭示安徽省粮食单产趋势变化特征和影响粮食单产变化的主要经济因素,利用1991—2010年安徽省78个县(区)粮食产量、农业经济数据,采用多种数理统计分析方法,分析安徽省粮食单产的变化趋势及主要经济影响因素。结果表明:近20年安徽省和各县粮食单产均呈明显上升趋势;其中20年变异系数较大,以及2000年之后的10年较前10年变异系数增长的区域均是粮食增长率不高的地区。运用系统聚类中的欧氏距离平方和最远邻远法,并结合地理特征将安徽粮食单产变化类型划分为四区。各区粮食单产变化趋势、波动幅度和产量高低差异较大,单产最高的是Ⅲ区,为5957 kg/hm2,最低的是Ⅰ区,为4255 kg/hm2,Ⅱ区和Ⅳ区居中,分别为5089 kg/hm2和4905 kg/hm2。影响粮食单产变化的首要因子是农民人均纯收入、财政支出,其次是有效灌溉面积、农机总动力、旱涝保收面积和农村用电量等,农用薄膜和农药用量等因子的影响较小。而各区粮食单产的变化趋势主要取决于农业经济因素的贡献率。

关 键 词:图像处理  图像处理  
收稿时间:2012/7/31 0:00:00
修稿时间:2012/8/28 0:00:00

Analysis of Trend Variation and Main Economic Influential Factors of Unit Area Grain Yield in Anhui Province
Gao Jinlan,Ma Xiaoqun,Zhang Qingguo,Xu Ying.Analysis of Trend Variation and Main Economic Influential Factors of Unit Area Grain Yield in Anhui Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(3):108-115.
Authors:Gao Jinlan  Ma Xiaoqun  Zhang Qingguo  Xu Ying
Institution:1School of Resource & Environment Sciences,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036;2Anhui Institute of Meteorological Science/Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Satellite Remote Sensing of Anhui Province,Hefei 230031;3School of Natural Sciences,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036)
Abstract:In order to reveal trend variation and main economic factors of unit area grain yield in Anhui Province. Based on the grain yield and agricultural economy data in 78 counties and districts of Anhui Province from 1991 to 2010, trend variation and main influential factors of unit area grain yield were analyzed in Anhui Province by adopting varieties of mathematical statistics. The results showed that, during the past 20 years, unit area grain yield of Anhui Province and each county had an obvious increase. During the 20 years, the variation coefficient was large. And the region where the variation coefficient of the decade after and before 2000 increased was also the area where the grain growth rate was low. Using the method of Squared Euclidean distance and Furthest Neighbor and combining with geographical characteristics, the type of unit area grain yield in Anhui could be divided into four parts. There were great differences in variation trend, fluctuation range and yield output level of unit area grain yield. The highest output of unit grain yield was areaⅢ, the value was 5957 kg/hm2, and the lowest was areaⅠ, the value was 4255 kg/hm2, while areaⅡandⅣwere in the middle, the value were 5089 kg/hm2 and 4905 kg/hm2. The chief factors that influence unit area grain yield were per capita net income of peasants and governmental expenditure. Then effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, ensured stable yields despite of drought and flood area and rural electricity consumption were also important factors. Agricultural film and pesticide consumption did not have too much influence. Variation trend of unit area grain yield in each area mainly depended on contribution rate of agriculture economic factors.
Keywords:unit area grain yield  trend analysis  economic factors analysis
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