Considerations on the future biomass production potential of Iceland,and what role that could have in future fuel supply and carbon balances |
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| Authors: | Harald Ulrik Sverdrup Anna Hulda Olafsdottir |
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| Institution: | Icelandic System Dynamics Centre (ISDC), Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland |
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| Abstract: | This study suggests that Iceland may be able to produce sufficient liquid hydrocarbon fuels from biological sources in the future to substitute the Icelandic 2016 consumption of fossil fuels, by using forest products. The authors evaluate a strategy to put forest on up to 35,000 km2 in Iceland to 2050. The preliminary study shows that Iceland could reach climate neutrality around 2050 and be a significant net carbon sequester for the next 250 years. Approximate estimates suggest that the total forest biomass production could reach about 10 million m3yr?1, comprising 3.1 million m3yr?1 of roundwood, 3.1 million m3yr?1 for generic biomass, and about 4.2 million m3yr?1 woody material for biofuel use. This could result in a net annual carbon dioxide sequestration of 2–2.5 mill ton CO2 yr?1 by 2100. The calculations suggest that such an afforestation and land restoration undertaking would be long term profitable in economic terms and that the payback time would be about 2050. The method applied in this study is that of a static mass balance calculations at different time points into the future. Parallel to this work, a full integrated regional forest production model is being developed and will be applied to this issue. |
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| Keywords: | Biomass forest fossil fuels climate neutral system analysis |
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