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| 日本落叶松人工林生长量的灰色—马尔柯夫预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 马友平,冯仲科,何友均.日本落叶松人工林生长量的灰色—马尔柯夫预测[J].福建林学院学报,2007,27(2):151-156. |
| 作者姓名： | 马友平 冯仲科 何友均 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京林业大学测绘与3S技术中心,北京,100083;湖北民族学院生物科学与技术学院,湖北,恩施,445000 2. 北京林业大学测绘与3S技术中心,北京,100083 3. 中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京,100091 |
| 摘 要： | 应用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行日本落叶松人工林生长趋势预测,在对43块标准地进行每木检尺的基础上,获得了不同龄阶平均单株木的3个测树因子胸径、树高、材积的总生长量,利用这些基于时间序列的原始数据对GM(1,1)模型进行拟合。其模型模拟检验精度:胸径、树高、材积均为Ⅱ级可用水平;发展系数|a|<0.3,可用于中长期预测。由预测产生的相对误差的大小,将原始数据划分为4种状态,分别写出胸径、树高、材积的四步概率转移矩阵p(i),建立灰色—马尔柯夫预测模型。从对32、34龄阶的预测结果看,灰色—马尔柯夫模型预测的平均相对精度分别为胸径99.22%、树高99.73%、材积98.33%,能进行高精度的预测工作。 |
| 关 键 词： | 日本落叶松 生长量 灰色模型 马尔柯夫链 灰色—马尔柯夫 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-389X（2007）02-0151-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-04 |
Grey-Markov forecasting on the growth of Larix kaempferi plantation |
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| MA You-ping,FENG Zhong-ke,HE You-jun.Grey-Markov forecasting on the growth of Larix kaempferi plantation[J].Journal of Fujian College of Forestry,2007,27(2):151-156. | |
| Authors: | MA You-ping FENG Zhong-ke HE You-jun |
| Abstract: | The Grey Model(1,1) was used to forecast the growth of Larix kaempferi plantation in this paper.Based on the log-scaling of each tree in the 43 plots,some factors of individual tree-measuring in different forest age stage were collected,such as diametre at breast height(DBH),tree height,volume.The Grey Model(1,1) was stimulated by analyzing the time order data.The verify precision of model simulating comes to Ⅱ level,its expand modulus ｜a｜ was less than 0.3,so the model could be used as medium-term or long-term forecasting on the growth of L.kaempferi plantation.The original data were divided into 4 types according to the value of relative error,at the same time,transition probability matrix on DBH,tree height,volume was expressed respectively,the Grey-Markov forecasting model was also founded.The mean relative precision of DBH,tree height,volume comes to 99.22%,99.73%,98.33% by predicting 32,34 aged forest stand,the results showed that Grey-Markov could be used to predict the growth of L.kaempferi plantation with high precision. |
| Keywords: | Larix kaempferi growth grey model Markov chain Grey-Markov |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |