| 我国重点国有林区转型能力评价与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹娟娟,王玉芳.我国重点国有林区转型能力评价与预测[J].世界林业研究,2020,33(6):110-114. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹娟娟 王玉芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学城市绿色发展科技战略研究北京市重点实验室,北京100875;上海电机学院商学院,上海200036 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金“基于生态功能区建设的国有林区社会经济转型问题研究”（11CJY021）；黑龙江省哲学科学研究规划项目“转型期东北国有林区职工家庭脆弱性研究”（17GLB013）；中央高效基本科研业务费专项“重点国有林区林业生态产业生态化转型研究”（2572018CP07）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 重点国有林区正在生态、社会及经济3个层面进行全方位转型；其转型能力是匹配且支持转型的一种能力，是由经济发展能力、社会和谐发展能力、生态保护能力3个维度构成的自组织整合系统。文中从我国重点国有林区转型发展的现实情况出发，构建其转型能力评价指标体系；采用熵权法对2001—2018年重点国有林区现实转型能力进行评价，并在此基础上运用马尔科夫模型预测2019—2023年重点国有林区转型能力。结果显示，2019—2003年重点国有林区转型能力仍将处于较强状态。
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| 关 键 词： | 重点国有林区 转型能力 熵权法 马尔科夫模型 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/6/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/10/21 0:00:00 |
Transformation Capability Evaluation and Prediction of Key State-owned Forest Areas in China |
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| Cao Juanjuan,Wang Yufang.Transformation Capability Evaluation and Prediction of Key State-owned Forest Areas in China[J].World Forestry Research,2020,33(6):110-114. |
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| Authors: | Cao Juanjuan Wang Yufang |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China2.Commercial College, Shanghai DianJi University, Shanghai 200036, China |
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| Abstract: | The key state-owned forest areas are under all-around transformation at the ecological, social and economic levels. The transformation ability is a kind of ability to be match with and support transformation, which is the self-organized integration systems composed of 3 dimensions of economic development ability, socially harmonious development ability and ecological protection ability. With an eye to the reality of the transformation and development of key state-owned forest area, this paper constructs the index system of transformation ability evaluation. The entropy weight method is used to evaluate the transformation ability of key state-owned forest areas from 2001 to 2018, based on which the Markov model is adopted to predict the future transformation ability of key state-owned forest areas from 2019 to 2023. The results show that the transformation ability of key state-owned forest is relatively strong and shows the increasing trend. |
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| Keywords: | key state-owned forest area transformation ability entropy weight method Markov model China |
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