| 南充地区的一次短临融合预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘慧君,高青云,张潇予.南充地区的一次短临融合预报试验[J].现代农业科技,2019(24). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘慧君 高青云 张潇予 |
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| 作者单位： | 南充市气象局,南充市气象局,南充市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 南充市重大气象灾害预警与评估协同创新团队攻关项目（2016002） |
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| 摘 要： | 将雷达资料为基础的外推预报和中尺度数值模式预报结合起来的融合预报是短临预报中一个新的研究方向。常用的融合技术有三种,本文采用最为高效实用的加权平均法开展一次融合预报试验。试验结果表明：融合预报较单一的外推或模式预报有着更好的预报效果；在融合前段外推预报所占比重更大,原因是外推预报对于降水系统的位置变化有较好的预报能力,而在融合后段模式预报对于系统的生消演变以及位置变化有更好的预报能力,因此模式所占比重更大。
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| 关 键 词： | 短临预报 加权平均法 融合试验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/8/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/8/26 0:00:00 |
A short-term blending prediction experiment in Nanchong area |
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| Abstract: | The combination of radar data-based extrapolation prediction and mesoscale numerical model prediction is a new research direction in short-term forecasting. There are three commonly used blending techniques. This paper uses a most efficient and practical weighted average method to conduct a blending prediction test. The test results show that the blending forecast has better forecasting effect than the single extrapolation or model forecast; the proportion of extrapolation forecast in the front section of the blending is larger because the extrapolation forecast has better forecasting ability for the position change of the precipitation system. However, In the post- blending mode prediction, there is a better forecasting ability for the evolution and location of the system., so the mode accounts for a larger proportion. |
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| Keywords: | short-term forecast weighted average method blending experiment |
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