| 农产品价格波动对出口的影响及成因分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张迪颖,王秀治.农产品价格波动对出口的影响及成因分析[J].中国农机化学报,2020(3):211-218. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张迪颖 王秀治 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海社会科学院应用经济研究所 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金一般项目(16BJY072)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 运用引力模型分析价格波动对农产品出口贸易的影响,并对价格波动成因进行拓展分析。结果显示,中国农产品价格波动对农产品出口存在显著地抑制效应,农产品价格每上升1%会造成农产品出口额下降0.09%。细分产业后,抑制效应明显放大,并且价格波动的出口抑制效应在农业、渔业和林业三个细分产业中依次增强,具体而言,农产品价格每上升1%,农业出口额会下降0.32%,渔业出口额会下降0.44%,林业出口额会下降0.49%。进一步研究发现,CPI与人民币汇率变动显著增强了农产品价格波动水平,CPI每波动1%,会造成农产品价格同向波动0.77%,人民币汇率每波动1%,会造成农产品价格同向波动1.91%,人民币汇率变化对农产品价格波动的影响更大。另外,自由贸易协定在一定程度上抵消了价格波动所带来的贸易抑制效应,但效果有限。
|
| 关 键 词： | 农产品出口 价格波动 引力模型 CPI 汇率 |
Effect and cause of China agricultural price volatility on exports |
| |
| Zhang Diying,Wang Xiuzhi.Effect and cause of China agricultural price volatility on exports[J].Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2020(3):211-218. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhang Diying Wang Xiuzhi |
| |
| Institution: | (Institute of Applied Economics Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai,200020,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Using the gravity model to analyze the impact of price volatility on agricultural export trade, and exploring the causes of agricultural product price volatility. The research shows that export price volatility has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural product export trade, 1 percent increase in agricultural product price volatility will result in 0.09 percent drop in agricultural exports. After subdividing the industry, the inhibitory effect is significantly enlarged, and the inhibition effects are weakened in forestry, fisheries and agriculture, 1 percent increase in agricultural product price volatility will result in 0.32 percent drop in small agricultural exports, 0.44 percent drop in fisheries exports and 0.49 percent drop in forestry exports. Further research has found that the changes in CPI and the RMB exchange rate significantly enhanced the level of agricultural product export price volatility, 1 percent change in CPI will result in 0.77 percent the same direction change in agricultural exports, 1 percent change in RMB exchange rate will result in 1.91 percent the same direction change in agricultural exports, in which the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on agricultural product export price fluctuations was greater. In addition, the FTA currently involved in China offsets the trade restraint effect caused by price fluctuations to a certain extent, but the effect is not obvious. |
| |
| Keywords: | agricultural exports price volatility gravity model CPI exchange rate |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
