| 安徽省油菜菌核病气象等级预报方法研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 岳 伟,曹 雯,刘元园,王 珍,郑兆阳.安徽省油菜菌核病气象等级预报方法研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(30):262-267. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 岳 伟 曹 雯 刘元园 王 珍 郑兆阳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 安徽省农业气象中心,安徽省农业气象中心,安徽省农业气象中心,安徽省农业气象中心,安徽省植物保护总站 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 基金项目：安徽省气象局气象科技发展基金“安徽省油菜菌核病和蚜虫发生气象等级预报模型”(KM201408)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为满足现代农业气象业务服务中病虫害发生发展气象等级预报需求,利用安徽省江淮、沿江和皖南3个区域代表站1991—2010年油菜菌核病观测数据和气象资料,通过相关分析,确定影响菌核病发生发展的主要影响时段和气象因子,再通过归一化处理、加权等方法得到影响油菜菌核病发生发展的综合气象条件指数。以综合气象条件指数为自变量,以油菜菌核病加权平均病株率为因变量,采用曲线回归方法,建立不同区域代表站油菜菌核病发生发展气象等级预报模型。模型拟合结果表明:江淮、沿江和皖南地区拟合准确率分别为80%、70%和75%;利用模型对2011—2013年发生情况进行预测,结果显示:江淮地区代表站全部正确,沿江和皖南地区代表站均为2年正确,一年与实际发生情况误差一个等级。建立的模型基本上能满足油菜菌核病气象等级预报业务服务的需求。
|
| 关 键 词： | 油菜 菌核病 病株率 预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/5/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/6/29 0:00:00 |
Research on Meteorological Grade Forecast of Rape Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum in Anhui Province |
| |
| Yue Wei,Cao Wen,Liu Yuanyuan,Wang Zhen and Zheng Zhaoyang.Research on Meteorological Grade Forecast of Rape Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum in Anhui Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(30):262-267. |
| |
| Authors: | Yue Wei Cao Wen Liu Yuanyuan Wang Zhen and Zheng Zhaoyang |
| |
| Institution: | Anhui Agriculture Meteorological Centre,Anhui Agriculture Meteorological Centre,Anhui Agriculture Meteorological Centre,Anhui Agriculture Meteorological Centre,Anhui Provincial Station of Plant Protection |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to meet the demand of meteorological grade forecast of crop disease and insect and pest in modern agriculture meteorological services, comprehensive index of meteorological conditions which had effects on rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence and development was developed, using rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum observation data and meteorological data of 1991-2010 from representative stations in Jianghuai, regions along the Yangtze River and regions in southern Anhui. Through the correlation analysis, the main influencing period and meteorological factors which had effects on rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence and development was found. Through the method of normalization, weighting and etc., comprehensive index of meteorological conditions was developed. Using comprehensive index as independent variable and rate of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum disease plant as dependent variable, meteorological grade forecast models for rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence and development in different regions were established by curve regression method. The fitting results showed that: the fitting accuracy of the model of Jianghuai, regions along the Yangtze River and regions in southern Anhui was 80%, 70% and 75%, respectively. Using the model to forecast the occurrence of rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in 2011, 2012 and 2013, the results showed that the forecast grade of representative stations in the Jianghuai area were all correct, while that of representative stations in the regions along the Yangtze River and the regions in southern Anhui for two years were correct, but for one year there was an error of one level. The model could basically meet the demand of meteorological grade forecast service for rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum. |
| |
| Keywords: | rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum rate of diseased plant forecasting model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
