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A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa |
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| Authors: | Mariner J C McDermott J Heesterbeek J A P Catley A Roeder P |
| Institution: | aRDP Livestock Services, P.O. Box 523, 3700 AM Zeist, The Netherlands bILRI, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya cFaculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Farm Animal Health, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands dCommunity-Based Animal Health and Participatory Epidemiology (CAPE) Unit, Pan African Programme for the Control of Epizootics, African Union/Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources, P.O. Box 30786, Nairobi, Kenya eAnimal Health Service, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy |
| Abstract: | The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively). |
| Keywords: | Rinderpest State-transition model Modelling Basic reproduction number Participatory epidemiology Policy-making |
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