| 中国农业上市公司财务预警模型构建与评价研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄美霞,侯军岐,马承君.中国农业上市公司财务预警模型构建与评价研究[J].北京农学院学报,2017,32(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄美霞 侯军岐 马承君 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京,100192;北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京,100192;北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京,100192 |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】上市农业企业相比于普通农业企业,在复杂的市场环境下面对更多、更复杂、更难以预测的风险,构建一个可行的财务预警模型来有效地预测中国农业上市公司财务风险势在必行。【方法】以中国农业上市公司为例,选取财务风险相关指标,运用主成分分析等方法,对财务指标进行筛选,最终得出综合的主成分因子。建立Z-Score模型,求取出农业上市公司的Z值。【结果】根据Z值结果分析,得出当Z值大于较大的临界值时,表明企业的财务良好;Z值小于较小的临界值,则企业可能存在很大的破产风险;Z值处于两临界值之间,企业的财务状况可能是不稳定的。农业上市公司根据Z值结果,分析企业财务数据管理、内部控制、财务管理人员素质和财务管理体系等影响公司财务状况的因素,针对可能引起财务危机的因素采取有效控制措施,及时防范风险。【结论】Z-Score模型对中国农业上市公司风险评估具有指导作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业上市公司 财务预警 财务风险 主成分分析 Z-Score模型 |
On the construction and evaluation of financial early-warning model of agricultural listed companies in China |
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| HUANG Meixia,HOU Junqi,MA Chengjun.On the construction and evaluation of financial early-warning model of agricultural listed companies in China[J].Journal of Beijing Agricultural College,2017,32(2). |
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| Authors: | HUANG Meixia HOU Junqi MA Chengjun |
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| Abstract: | Objective]Compared with other agricultural companies,the listed agricultural enterprises face more risks which are more complex and more difficult to predict.It is imperative for them to have a financial early-warning model to effectively predict the financial risks.Methods]Using principal component analysis,after selecting and filtering some financial risk-related indexes,the authors obtain the comprehensive principal component factors and figure out the Z value of agricultural listed companies.Thus,financial condition of every agricultural listed company could be known with its Z-score.Results]The conclusion is that the company's financial condition is good if its Z value is greater than the larger critical value,may have a lot of bankruptcy risks if its Z value is less than the smaller critical value,and may be unstable if the Z value is between the two critical values.According to the Z score,the companies could analyze factors which may affect their financial conditions,including financial data management,internal controls,the quality of financial administrative persons and financial management system,and take effective measures and methods to avoid or decentralize risks.Conclusion]The Z-Score model has an effect on risk assessment of Chinese agricultural listed company. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural listed company financial early warning financial risk PCA Z-score model |
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