| 宁夏降水空间分布格局及其多时间尺度变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐利岗,汤英,杜历,鲍子云.宁夏降水空间分布格局及其多时间尺度变化特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(34):21303-21306,21310. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐利岗 汤英 杜历 鲍子云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 宁夏水利科学研究所,宁夏银川750021;四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065
2. 宁夏水利科学研究所,宁夏银川,750021 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金,国家科技支撑项目,宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]研究宁夏降水空间分布格局及其多时间尺度变化特征。方法]依据宁夏1951～2008年月降水资料,采用旋转自然正交分解法（REOF）、降水集度法（PCI）、小波分析法及Mann-Kendall秩次相关分析等方法,分析近58年来该地区降水的空间分布格局及其多时间尺度变化特征。结果]宁夏地区降水的空间结构总体表现为＂南北异向＂型和＂北中南各异＂型;降水由北向南依次递增,年际变化由北向南依次减弱,引黄灌区降水年内分配极不均匀,其他地区年内变化波动相对平缓;各地单独丰水年的概率高于单独枯水年,而发生连枯年的概率则高于连丰年,并以3、6及10年的显著周期振荡。中部干旱带及南部山区降水呈减少趋势的概率均为75.0%,引黄灌区达71.4%,全区降水减少的概率达73.3%;中部干旱带及引黄灌区年降水波动呈增加趋势;降水的年内分配差异将变缓,尤其是中部干旱带呈减少趋势概率达100.0%。结论]该研究为当地降水资源的有效利用及区域社会经济与生态环境协调发展提供有益的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 空间格局 多时间尺度 时间演变 趋势分析 宁夏 |
Characteristics of Spatial Structural Patterns and Temporal Variability of Annual Precipitation in Ningxia |
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| Institution: | XU Li-gang et al(The Scientific Research Institute of the Water Conservancy of Ningxia,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750021) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the spatial structural patterns and temporal variability of annual precipitation in Ningxia.Method] Using empirical orthogonal function rotated empirical orthogonal function,the precipitation concentration index,morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall rank statistic method,the characteristics of precipitation on the spatial-temporal variability and trend were analyzed by the monthly precipitation series in Ningxia during 1951-2008.Result] In Ningxia,the spatial structural patterns of annual precipitation appeared "North-south type" and "North-middle-south type".It increased from north to south,the changes of inter-annual precipitation decreased from north to south.Precipitation changed significantly in month and distributed no uniform for the intra-annual in the Yellow river irrigation area.But it was conversely in mid arid zone and mountainous area of southern Ningxia.The probability of single abundant precipitation year is higher than single short precipitation year and the continuous short precipitation year is higher than continuous abundant precipitation year.The main cycles are 3a,6a and 10a approximately.In the mid arid zone and the mountainous area of southern Ningxia,the probability of precipitation reduction was about 75.0% and the Yellow river irrigation area,71.4%,respectively.The reduction in the entire area was about 73.3%.The annual precipitation in the middle arid area and irrigation area was increasing.The variability would change slowly for the intra-annual distribution of precipitation.Especially,the reduction tendency rate in the middle arid area reached 100.0%.Conclusion] The study provided references for the effective utilization of the local precipitation,and the coordinated development of the regional social economy and ecological environment. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation Spatial structural patterns Multiple-time scale Temporal variation Trends analysis Ningxia |
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