| 基于@RISK软件评估玉米褪绿斑驳病毒对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏鹏,秦誉嘉,范在丰,周涛,郭韶堃,李志红.基于@RISK软件评估玉米褪绿斑驳病毒对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失[J].植物保护学报,2022,49(5):1377-1382. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏鹏 秦誉嘉 范在丰 周涛 郭韶堃 李志红 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 北京 100193 |
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| 基金项目： | 财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系（CARS-02） |
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| 摘 要： | 为明确玉米褪绿斑驳病毒 （maize chlorotic mottle virus， MCMV）对我国玉米生产的经济损失，通过收集、整理玉米产量、种植面积、市场价格以及MCMV潜在地理分布、危害和防控等相关数据，基于随机模型利用@RISK软件分别预测MCMV在不防控和防控场景下对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失。结果表明，在不防控场景下， MCMV对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失总量的90%置信区间为329.44亿~508.96亿元；而在防控场景下， MCMV对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失总量的90%置信区间为51.62亿~76.23亿元，可挽回潜在经济损失的90%置信区间为278.38亿~437.93亿元。说明MCMV严重威胁我国玉米生产，建议有关部门加强检疫阻截防控工作，保障我国玉米产业安全。
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| 关 键 词： | 玉米褪绿斑驳病毒 玉米 @RISK软件 潜在经济损失 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/9/5 0:00:00 |
Assessment of potential economic loss of maize industry in China caused by maize chlorotic mottle virus using @RISK software |
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| Wei Peng,Qin Yuji,Fan Zaifeng,Zhou Tao,Guo Shaokun,Li Zhihong.Assessment of potential economic loss of maize industry in China caused by maize chlorotic mottle virus using @RISK software[J].Acta Phytophylacica Sinica,2022,49(5):1377-1382. |
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| Authors: | Wei Peng Qin Yuji Fan Zaifeng Zhou Tao Guo Shaokun Li Zhihong |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China |
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| Abstract: | To clarify the impact of maize chlorotic mottle virus (MCMV) on maize production in China, data related to maize yields, planting area, market price of maize, and potential geographical distribution of MCMV, damage and control were collected, and the potential economic loss of the Chinese maize industry was predicted by using the random model @RISK under the scenarios of non-control and control. Under non-control scenario, the potential economic loss of Chinese maize caused by MCMV was predicted 32.944 billion-50.896 billion Yuan (90% confidence interval). Under control scenario, the potential loss was predicted 5.162 billion-7.623 billion Yuan (90% confidence interval), and the potential economic loss that can be retrieved after investment was estimated 27.838 billion-43.793 billion Yuan (90% confidence interval). The results indicated that MCMV could have a serious impact on maize production, and the relevant departments should strengthen quarantine and prevention to protect the maize industry in China. |
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| Keywords: | maize chlorotic mottle virus (MCMV) maize @RISK software potential economic loss |
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