| 21世纪青藏高原气候时空变化评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 程志刚,刘晓东,范广洲,白爱娟,王炳赟.21世纪青藏高原气候时空变化评估[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(4):669-676. |
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| 作者姓名： | 程志刚 刘晓东 范广洲 白爱娟 王炳赟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 成都信息工程学院大气科学学院 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610225;
2. 中国科学院地球环境研究所 中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710075 |
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| 基金项目： | 成都信息工程学院科研基金(KYTZ201006); 国家自然基金重大项目(40825008); 国家自然科学基金面上项目(40975020); 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放基金(PAEKL-2009-K1)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 在对比分析IPCC第4次评估报告所采用的23个气候模式输出、ERA40再分析气温资料和GPCP降水资料的基础上,运用选取的11个模式输出资料,以集合平均的方法,结合动力降尺度数据,分析中等排放情景下21世纪青藏高原气温和降水变化的时空分布。11个模式集合结果表明：相对于2008年而言,21世纪中期青藏高原年均气温和降水...
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| 关 键 词： | 模式集合 动力降尺度 气候变化 气温 降水 青藏高原 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-05-24; |
Spatiotemporal Distribution of Climate Change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 21st Century |
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| CHENG Zhi-gang,LIU Xiao-dong,FAN Guang-zhou,BAI Ai-juan,WANG Bing-yun.Spatiotemporal Distribution of Climate Change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 21st Century[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(4):669-676. |
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| Authors: | CHENG Zhi-gang LIU Xiao-dong FAN Guang-zhou BAI Ai-juan WANG Bing-yun |
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| Institution: | 1. Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710075, China |
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| Abstract: | By comparing the data calculated with 23 models from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, precipitation data from GPCP and air temperature data from ECMWF, the spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 21st century was analyzed by using the output data of 11 models and the high-resolution dynamical downscaling data on A1B scenarios. The result of 11-model ensemble mean shows that the air temperature and precipitation will increase by 1.98 ℃ and 0.06 mm/d in the mid-21st century compared with those in 2008, but by 3.93 ℃ and 0.24 mm/d at the end-21st century. The results analyzed with the dynamical downscaling reveal that there will be the significant wetting and warming trends over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in next 100 years, the spatial distribution of precipitation will be quite uneven, and there is a big uncertainty in simulating precipitation variation. |
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| Keywords: | model ensemble dynamical downscaling climate change air temperature precipitation Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
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