| 证据理论在泵站老化评价中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈坚,徐艳茹,于永海,王建明,张后文.证据理论在泵站老化评价中的应用[J].排灌机械,2011(3):224-229. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈坚 徐艳茹 于永海 王建明 张后文 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;宁夏水务投资集团有限公司;河海大学水利水电学院;山西省运城市大禹渡扬水工程管理局;安徽省凤凰颈排灌站管理处; |
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| 基金项目： | “十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAD11B07) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高泵站老化等级确定的可信度,建立基于证据理论的泵站老化评价模型.以2座典型泵站为例,提取各项老化指标信息,请3位专家按照老化评价标准,对指标体系中的最底层指标,在每个老化等级上进行单独评分,并且经可信度归一化处理,每个评分作为一条证据,按照Dempster合成法则计算,得到每个最底层指标在识别框架上的可信度分配;然后,每个最底层指标在识别框架上的可信度分配作为一条证据,按照Dempster合成法则及带权重的证据理论合成公式层层计算,得到泵站的综合管理、机电设备、建筑物、金属结构以及泵站整体在识别框架上的可信度分配;最后按照给定公式,计算评分并确定老化等级.与应用模糊层次综合评价模型计算的结果比较,在识别框架上,除了出现难以解决的证据冲突的情况外,同一指标的最大可信度平均是最大模糊隶属度的2.4倍,且两者对应的老化等级相同,应用证据理论可以提高泵站老化等级确定的可信度;合成证据前,对每条证据进行归一化处理,可以较好地解决合成过程中出现合成信度大于1的异常情况.
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| 关 键 词： | 证据理论 泵站 老化评价 可信度 模糊隶属度 |
Application of evidence theory for aging degree evaluation in pumping station |
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| Chen Jian,Xu Yanru,Yu Yonghai,Wang Jianming,Zhang Houwen.Application of evidence theory for aging degree evaluation in pumping station[J].Drainage and Irrigation Machinery,2011(3):224-229. |
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| Authors: | Chen Jian Xu Yanru Yu Yonghai Wang Jianming Zhang Houwen |
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| Institution: | Chen Jian1,Xu Yanru2,Yu Yonghai3,Wang Jianming4,Zhang Houwen5(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072,China,2.Ningxia Water Investment Group Co.Ltd.,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750001,3.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098,4.Administration of Dayudu Pumping Station in Shanxi Province,Yuncheng,Shanxi 044600,5.Administration of Fenghuangjing Irrigation and Drainage Pumping... |
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| Abstract: | To increase the credibility of determining the aging degree grade of pumping station,a new pumping station aging degree evaluation model based on evidence theory was built.Taking two typical pumping stations as examples,from which aging information was extracted for each index.According to pumping station aging evaluation standard,three experts were asked to give score separately on each aging degree grade for basic indices of the index system and each score as one piece of evidence after being normalized.A... |
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| Keywords: | evidence theory pumping station aging degree evaluation credibility fuzzy membership |
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