| 基于不同气候条件的中西太平洋鲣鱼渔场预报 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈洋洋,陈新军,郭立新,方舟.基于不同气候条件的中西太平洋鲣鱼渔场预报[J].上海海洋大学学报,2019,28(1):145-153. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈洋洋 陈新军 郭立新 方舟 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306,上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306;农业部大洋渔业开发重点实验室, 上海 201306;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心, 上海 201306;农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站, 上海 201306,上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306,上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306;农业部大洋渔业开发重点实验室, 上海 201306;国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心, 上海 201306;农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站, 上海 201306 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 上海市科技创新计划（15DZ1202200）；海洋局公益性行业专项（20155014） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据1995—2014年中西太平洋鲣鱼围网捕捞生产统计数据,选取了产量最高的22个5°×5°的海区,结合尼诺指数划分不同的气候类型,以渔获量为指标,建立在不同气候条件下中西太平洋鲣鱼围网渔场的渔情预报模型。研究认为:在不同的气候条件下,鲣鱼产量有所波动,其中厄尔尼诺月份月总产量和月均产量最高,与拉尼娜月份产量接近,而正常年份产量最低;不同空间不同气候条件下的产量有较大差异,在130°E～145°E海域,北纬5°产量明显高于南纬5°产量,同时正常月份的产量最高;在145°E～165°E海域,拉尼娜月份产量最高;在165°E以东海域,拉尼娜月份产量最低;将渔获量与Nino 3. 4区的SSTA建立关系,结果显示两者有着很强的相关关系,均符合正态模型(P 0. 01)。模型验证的结果显示,3种气候条件下的预报结果与实际统计值间均存在显著相关关系(P 0. 01),模型有着较高的相关系数,拟合结果较好。针对中西太平洋不同空间位置的3种气候条件下鲣鱼渔获量波动规律进行研究,为预测渔场和相关预报工作提供了新的思路。
|
| 关 键 词： | 鲣鱼 渔获量 厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件 渔场预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/4/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/6/16 0:00:00 |
Fishing ground forecasting on Katsuwonus pelamis based on different climatic conditions in western and central Pacific Ocean |
| |
| CHEN Yangyang,CHEN Xinjun,GUO Lixin and FANG Zhou.Fishing ground forecasting on Katsuwonus pelamis based on different climatic conditions in western and central Pacific Ocean[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2019,28(1):145-153. |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Yangyang CHEN Xinjun GUO Lixin and FANG Zhou |
| |
| Institution: | College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China,College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China,College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China and College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the purse seine statistical data of skipjack tuna in western and central Pacific Ocean during 1995-2014, 22 high catch fishing zone were selected, taking catch data as the index and combining different climatic conditions divided by the Nino index, to establish the forecasting model of Katsuwonus pelamisin western and central Pacific Ocean based on the different climatic conditions.The results showed that:the catch of skipjack fluctuated among different climatic conditions, the monthly total catch and monthly mean catch in El Nino were the highest, which was similar to La Nina, and higher than the normal condition; the catch among different spatial and climatic conditions had difference, the catch in 5°N was higher than 5°S, and the normal condition had the highest catch; La Nina event was the highest between the 145°E-165°E; La Nina was the lowest eastward of 165°E; the relationship between catch and SSTA of Nino 3.4 was established, and the above two indexes had strong relationship, fit well with the Normal Model (P<0.01). The model validation result showed that predicted results and actual results fitted well and had significant relationship in all the three climatic conditions. The spatial catch variation of skipjack tuna was analyzed under three different climatic conditions in western and central Pacific Ocean. The model can effectively provide new idea for the future work of fishing ground prediction and forecasting. |
| |
| Keywords: | skipjack catch El Nino/La Nina fishing ground forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《上海海洋大学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《上海海洋大学学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
