| 未来气候变化情景下西北太平洋柔鱼资源补充量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 龚彩霞,陈新军,高峰,余为.未来气候变化情景下西北太平洋柔鱼资源补充量预测[J].上海海洋大学学报,2022,31(1):223-232. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龚彩霞 陈新军 高峰 余为 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学,上海海洋大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 摘 要： | 结合1996—2005年西北太平洋柔鱼经验产卵场、推测产卵场和索饵场各月适宜水温面积占总面积的比例(P;),分析其与柔鱼单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unite effort, CPUE)之间的相关关系,选取统计关系显著的P;与CPUE建立线性预报模型,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,对2025、2055和2095年柔鱼资源补充量进行预测。结果表明:在气候变化下,柔鱼经验产卵场适宜SST范围向北移动,到2095年移动至经验产卵场最北缘,1—4月经验产卵场平均P;呈下降趋势:但变化不显著;推测产卵场适宜SST范围向北移动,到2095年移动至推测产卵场最北缘,且已超过推测产卵场范围,1—4月推测产卵场平均P;呈下降趋势,变化显著;索饵场适宜SST范围向北移动且有扩张趋势,7—10月索饵场平均P;呈下降趋势,变化显著。相关分析表明,1996—2005年2月和3月推测产卵场P;与CPUE显著正相关。未来柔鱼CPUE呈下降趋势:到2025年,柔鱼CPUE为(208.87±5.46)t/艘;到2055年,为(198.00±47.92)t/艘;到2095年,为(154.35±48.72)t/艘。到2095年,相比于2000年柔鱼CPUE最大下降60.08%。建议采取兼容气候适应性的柔鱼资源养护管理措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 柔鱼 资源补充量 海表面温度 西北太平洋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/9/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/10/6 0:00:00 |
Predicting the recruitment of neon flying squid in the northwest Pacific Ocean under climate change scenarios |
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| GONG Caixi,CHEN Xinjun,GAO Feng,YU Wei.Predicting the recruitment of neon flying squid in the northwest Pacific Ocean under climate change scenarios[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2022,31(1):223-232. |
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| Authors: | GONG Caixi CHEN Xinjun GAO Feng YU Wei |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai Ocean University |
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| Abstract: | The spawning ground of Ommastrephes bartramii is divided into empirical spawning ground and speculated spawning ground. By analyzing the correlation between the proportions of the appropriate sea surface temperature (SST) area in the total area (Ps) in the empirical spawning ground, speculated spawning ground and feeding ground each month, a linear prediction model is established by selecting the month with significant statistical relationship between Ps and catch per unit fishing effort (CPUE). Under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the recruitment of O. bartramii resources are predicted using this model and the Ps of the statistical significant months in 2025, 2055 and 2095. The results shows that the suitable SST range of the empirical spawning ground of O. bartramii moves northward under the climate change scenario, and reaches the northernmost edge of the empirical spawning ground in 2095. The average Ps of the empirical spawning ground between January and April decreases, but the change is not significant. The suitable SST range of the speculated spawning ground also moves northward, reaching the northernmost edge of the speculated spawning ground in 2095, which is beyond the range of speculated spawning ground. The average Ps of the speculated spawning ground between January and April decreases, and the change is significant. The suitable SST range of the feeding ground moves northward and tends to expand. The average Ps of the feeding ground between July and October shows a downward trend with a significant change. The result of correlation analysis shows that there is a significant positive correlation between Ps and CPUE of speculated spawning ground in February and March. In the future, the CPUE of O. bartramii will decline. By 2025, the CPUE of O. bartramii will be 208.87±5.46 ton per vessel. By 2055, it will be 198±47.92 ton per vessel. By 2095, it will be 154.35±48.72 ton per vessel. Decline of O. bartramii resources will be 60.08% in 2095 compared with 2000.We suggest for sustainable development of O. bartramii fishery that compatible with climate change under the maintenance and management mode and framework of NPFC. |
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| Keywords: | climate change Ommastrephes bartramii recruitment sea surface temperature Northwest Pacific Ocean predict |
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