| 青花椒气候品质评估模型的构建与验证 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙恩虹,张建平,张凯,童建川,苏家奎,叶坤.青花椒气候品质评估模型的构建与验证[J].南方农业学报,2021,52(7):1942-1951. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙恩虹 张建平 张凯 童建川 苏家奎 叶坤 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆市江津现代农业气象试验站,重庆 402260;重庆市江津区气象局,重庆 402260;重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆 401147;重庆市江津现代农业气象试验站,重庆 402260;重庆市江津区农业农村委,重庆 402260 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2021J68） |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】研究关键生育期气象条件对青花椒品质的影响，并构建青花椒气候品质评估模型，为青花椒气候品质评估及区域优势气候资源开发利用等提供技术支撑。【方法】以青花椒品种九叶青为试验材料，于2015—2020年分别在重庆地区11个花椒主产区选择代表性花椒园3—5个取样，测定青花椒品质指标；采用相关分析法筛选出影响青花椒挥发油、麻味素和硒含量等品质指标的主要气象因子，建立气象因子与青花椒品质指标的回归模型；利用模型推算出不同花椒品质等级相对应的气象因子阈值，利用层次分析法构建青花椒气候品质评估模型；以未参与建模的品质检测数据验证模型。【结果】影响青花椒气候品质优劣的关键气象因子为果实膨大期的日照时数（X1）、累计降水量（X2）、气温日较差（X3）、≥85%高湿日数（X4），采收期的日照时数（X5）、累计降水量（X6）、气温日较差（X7）和雨日数（X8），采用层次分析法确定评估模型中各气象因子的权重系数分别为0.19、0.06、0.17、0.13、0.07、0.19、0.06和0.13，青花椒气候品质评估模型为:ICQ=0.19X1+0.06X2+0.17X3+0.13X4+0.07X5+0.19X6+0.06X7+0.13X8。青花椒气候品质划分为特优、优、良和一般4个等级，评估指数（ICQ）相应阈值为ICQ≥0.85、0.75≤ICQ<0.85、0.65≤ICQ<0.75、ICQ<0.65。基于评估模型，对2020年重庆江津几江地区青花椒气候品质进行评估分析，评估指数为0.91，判定为特优等级，与花椒园现场取样检测结果相符。【结论】研究建立的评估方法和指标能客观反映青花椒的品质等级，可应用于青花椒生产的气象条件适宜度服务和花椒采收期预报服务。
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| 关 键 词： | 青花椒 气候品质 气象因子 评估模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-25 |
Establishment and validation of elevation model of climate quality for Zanthoxylum schinifolium Sieb.et Zucc |
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| SUN En-hong,ZHANG Jian-ping,ZHANG Kai,TONG Jian-chuan,SU Jia-kui,YE Kun.Establishment and validation of elevation model of climate quality for Zanthoxylum schinifolium Sieb.et Zucc[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture,2021,52(7):1942-1951. |
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| Authors: | SUN En-hong ZHANG Jian-ping ZHANG Kai TONG Jian-chuan SU Jia-kui YE Kun |
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| Institution: | 1 Jiangjin Modern Agrometeorology Experimental Station of Chongqing, Chongqing 402260, China;2 Jiangjin Meteorological Bureau of Chongqing, Chongqing 402260, China;3 Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China;4 Jiangjin Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee of Chongqing, Chongqing 402260, China |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】 The effects of meteorological conditions during the key growth period on quality of Zanthoxylum schinifolium Sieb.et Zucc were researched and the evaluation model of climate quality for Z. schinifolium was established, in order to provide technical support for climate quality evaluation for Z. schinifolium and exploitation and utilization of regional climate resources.【Method】 Took Jiuyeqing Z. schinifolium as material, samples were collected at major producing districts in Chongqing during 2015-2020. Three to five orchards were selected in each district. Quality indexes were tested for Z. schinifolium. Correlation analysis were used to screen climate factors that influenced volatile oil, amide compounds and selenium of Z. schinifolium. Regression model was established by climate factor and quality index. The threshold of climate factors corresponding to the Z. schinifolium quality and classification criteria for climatic conditions of Z. schinifolium were also determined by regression model. Analytical hierarchy process(AHP) were used to establish the evaluation model. To predict the effects of the evaluation model by using the other samples that were not included in the model development.【Result】 There were eight key climate factors that reflected the climate quality of Z. schinifolium, which were sunshine duration(X1), cumulative precipitation(X2), daily temperature range(X3), ≥85% humidity days during the fruit formation period(X4) and sunshine duration(X5), cumulative precipitation(X6), daily temperature range(X7), rainy days(X8) during picking period. The weight coefficients of climate factors were 0.19, 0.06, 0.17, 0.13, 0.07, 0.19, 0.06, 0.13, respectively. The climate quality evaluation model of Z. schinifolium was ICQ=0.19 X1+ 0.06 X2+0.17 X3+0.13 X4+0.07 X5+0.19 X6+0.06 X7+0.13 X8. The climate quality of Z. schinifolium were divided into 4 grades:extra excellent, excellent, good and normal. The thresholds of evaluation indexes(ICQ) were ICQ≥0.85, 0.75≤ICQ<0.85, 0.65≤ICQ<0.75 and ICQ<0.65. Based on the model, the comprehensive index of climate quality of Z. schinifolium picked in Jijiang, Jiangjin District, Chongqing in 2020 was 0.91, which was judged as extra excellent and consistent with actual conditions in sampling sites.【Conclusion】 The established evaluation methods and indicators can objectively reflect the quality grade of Z. schinifolium, they can be applied to serve in climate conditions suitability of Z. schinifolium production and harvest forecast of Z. schinifolium. |
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