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Analyzing the effects of risk and uncertainty on optimal tillage and nitrogen fertilizer intensity for field crops in Germany |
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| Authors: | Markus Gandorfer David Pannell |
| Institution: | a Institute of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Technische Universität München, Alte Akademie 14, 85350 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany b School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Western Australia, MO89, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia c Department of Technology Assessment and Substance Cycles, Leibniz-Institute for Agricultural Engineering, Potsdam-Bornim, Max-Eyth-Allee 100, 14469 Potsdam, Germany |
| Abstract: | This study provides a risk analysis of long-term field experiments in Germany (Bavaria) on various field crops (potato, wheat and corn), grown in rotation, under a variety of different tillage and nitrogen management systems. The field experiment provided yield and input data for the analysis, and was combined with market data relevant to the case-study region. The emphasis of the analysis is on the interaction between risk and tillage and nitrogen strategies. Over the whole rotation (corn-wheat-potato-wheat), conventional tillage combined with conventional nitrogen rates is optimal, both for risk-neutral and risk-averse farmers. Although less intensive management practices involve lower risk, the decrease in risk premium is not sufficient to alter the ranking of strategies, even for farmers with higher levels of risk aversion. Reducing nitrogen rates would be costly to farmers, especially under reduced or shallow tillage. Decoupled farm subsidies within the expected utility model show that even for a scenario with no subsidies our conclusions do not change. |
| Keywords: | Tillage Nitrogen management Risk analysis Expected utility Stochastic dominance |
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