| 用自助法统计推断炔螨特对桑树朱砂叶螨的防治效果 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴福安,余茂德,王兴科,程嘉翎.用自助法统计推断炔螨特对桑树朱砂叶螨的防治效果[J].蚕业科学,2006,32(4):453-458. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴福安 余茂德 王兴科 程嘉翎 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院蚕业研究所,镇江,212018;西南大学蚕学与生物技术学院,重庆,400716 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十五”重点科技攻关专题内容(编号2001 BA-502 B01)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用自助法(Bootstrap method)对炔螨特(propargite)防治桑树朱砂叶螨(Tetranychus cinnabarinus)的效果进行了统计推断。将4个试验点获得的田间防治效果数据进行平方根反正弦转换后,采用1000次自助法再抽样并作统计分析。结果表明,73%炔螨特乳油243．33mg/L有效质量浓度处理的第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为78．37%、86．03%和86．36%,置信区间估计依次为78．21%～78．52%、85．83%～86．24%和86．16%～86．55%；365．00mg/L处理的第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为88．14%、91．90%和91．23%,置信区间估计依次为88．01%～88．27%、91．78%～92．02%和91．09%～91．38%；486．67mg/L处理第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为92．82%、95．70%和95．11%,相应的置信区间估计依次为92．72%～92．93%、95．64%～95．76%和95．01%～95．20%。以上述的点估计为测试点,对各浓度处理后的不同天数的防治效果进行游程检测(Monte carlo Sig方法),随机性显著(p＞0．05)。通过Tamhane方法、Dunnett T3方法和Games-Howell方法对上述各处理的不同天数后的防治效果进行统计检测表明：炔螨特对桑园中朱砂叶螨的防治效果在防治后第3天达到高峰(p＞0．05),至第7天,243．33mg/L处理区的防治效果持平(p＜0．0000)；而365．00和486．67mg/L处理区的防治效果呈下降趋势(p＞0．05)。以上统计推断结果显示：73%炔螨特乳油对桑树朱砂叶螨具有较好的田间防治效果,推荐使用的有效质量浓度为243．33mg/L。
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| 关 键 词： | 桑园杀螨剂 炔螨特 朱砂叶螨 防治效果 统计推断 |
| 文章编号： | 0257-4799(2006)04-0453-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年8月30日 |
Statistical Inference of Controlling Effects of Propargite on Carmine Spider Mite (Tetranychus cinnabarinus) in Mulberry (Morus L.) Garden by Bootstrap Method |
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| WU Fu-An,YU Mao-De,WANG Xing-Ke,CHENG Jia-Ling.Statistical Inference of Controlling Effects of Propargite on Carmine Spider Mite (Tetranychus cinnabarinus) in Mulberry (Morus L.) Garden by Bootstrap Method[J].Acta Sericologica Sinica,2006,32(4):453-458. |
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| Authors: | WU Fu-An YU Mao-De WANG Xing-Ke CHENG Jia-Ling |
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| Abstract: | Statistical inference of controlling effects of propargite on carmine spider mite(Tetranychus cinnabar- inus)in mulberry(Morus L.)garden was performed by using bootstrapping method.Data from 4 areas in Chi- na were bootstrapped(1000),the results showed that the point estimations of the controlling effects of concen- tration of 243.33 mg/L were 78.37%,86.03% and 86.36% in first,third and seventh day,respectively,confi- dence interval(CI)estimations were 78.21%～78.52% ,85.83%～86.24% and 86.16%～86.55% respective- ly,that the point estimations of different day for 365.00 mg/L were 88.14%,91.23% and 91.90%,respec- tively,CIs were 88.01%～88.27% ,91.78%～92.02% and 91.09%～91.38%,respectively,and that the point estimations for 486.67 mg/L were 92.82%,95.70% and 95.11%,respectively,CIs were 92.72%～92.93%, 95.64%～95.76% and 95.01%～95.20%,respectively. Using run-tests of the controlling effects on days of treatments by Monte Carlo Sig with cut values correspond- ing point estimations,the results suggested that data in groups were stochastic(p＞0.05).Tests of Tamhane, Dunnett and Games-Howellafter method showed that controlling effects reached maximum in third day for all treatmenis(p＞0.05),then treatment effects presented descending(p＞0.05) except that it was invariable for 243.33 mg/L(p＜0.000 0).The statistical inference revealed that the controlling effect of propargite on the red mite in mulberry garden in China is acceptable under sprayed concentration of 243.33 mg/L. |
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| Keywords: | Acaricide in mulberry Propargite Tetranychus cinnabarinus Controlling effects Statistical inference |
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