| 基于公共天气预报的广东青年运河灌区参考作物腾发量预报方法比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 晏成明,刘梦,罗玉峰.基于公共天气预报的广东青年运河灌区参考作物腾发量预报方法比较[J].排灌机械工程学报,2018,36(8):738-743. |
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| 作者姓名： | 晏成明 刘梦 罗玉峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广东水利电力职业技术学院, 广东 广州 510925; 2.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北 武汉 430072 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提出高精度适合广东青年运河灌区参考作物腾发量(ET0)预报方法,制定精准的灌溉预报,降低农业用水量,本研究以灌区内的湛江站为研究对象,收集了该站点2003-01-01-2017-05-31逐日气象观测数据和2016-01-01-2017-05-31日的预见期为7 d的逐日公共天气预报数据,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith计算值作为基准,比较Hargreaves-Samani(HS)法、简化Penman-Monteith(PT)、逐日均值修正法的预报效果.结果表明:以上3种方法1~7 d预见期平均绝对误差平均值分别为0.908 3,0.903 1,0.947 9 mm/d,平均绝对误差分别为1.099 1,1.099 9,1.192 4 mm/d,相关系数分别为0.649 5,0.649 8,0.615 9,PT法的平均绝对误差以及相关系数均最好.就每个预见期而言,1~5 d预见期的最优预报方法均为PT法,6~7 d为HS法.因此,建议采用PT法进行青年运河灌区的ET0预报.
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| 关 键 词： | 参考作物腾发量 公共天气预报 Hargreaves-Samani法 简化Penman-Monteith法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-05-08 |
Comparisons of reference evapotranspiration forecasting methods with public weather forecasts for Youth Canal Irrigation District in Guangdong |
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| YAN Chengming,LIU Meng,LUO Yufeng.Comparisons of reference evapotranspiration forecasting methods with public weather forecasts for Youth Canal Irrigation District in Guangdong[J].Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering,2018,36(8):738-743. |
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| Authors: | YAN Chengming LIU Meng LUO Yufeng |
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| Institution: | 1.Guangdong Polytechnic of Water Resources and Electric Engineering, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510925, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | Accurate method for forecasting reference evapotranspiration(ET0)in Youth Canal Irrigation District of Guangdong province was investigated to develop accurate irrigation forecasts and reduce agricultural water use. Daily weather observation data of the Zhanjiang Weather Station from January 1, 2003 to May 31, 2017 and daily public weather forecast data of 7 days ahead from January 1, 2016 to May 31, 2017 were collected. Forecasted ET0 from weather forecasts and Hargreaves-Samani(HS)method, reduced set Penman-Monteith(PT), and the daily average modification method were compared with calculated ET0 with FAO-56 Penman-Monteith and observed weather data. The results show that the average values of mean absolute error(MAE)of the 3 methods above are 0.908 3, 0.903 1 and 0.947 9 mm/d respectively, the root mean square errors(RMSE)are 1.099 1, 1.099 9 and 1.192 4 mm/d respectively and the correlation coefficients are 0.649 5, 0.649 8 and 0.615 9,respectively. Among the 3 methods, the PT has the best values of MAE and correlation coefficients. The PT method has the highest accuracy for the forecast horizon of 1-5 day while the HS method is the best for the forecast horizon of 6-7 days. Therefore, the PT method is recommended for ET0 forecasting Youth Canal Irrigation District. |
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| Keywords: | reference evapotranspiration public weather forecast Hargreaves-Samani simplified Penman-Monteith |
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