| 基于ECM模型的河南农村金融支持研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭震.基于ECM模型的河南农村金融支持研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2012(1):97-102. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭震 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学;河南财经政法大学 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2009FJJ029);河南省科技厅软科学项目(092400440057) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以1990—2009年农民生活性消费支出、农业贷款、乡镇企业贷款数据为依据,对3者之间的关系进行协整分析、格兰杰检验,并建立了误差修正模型.研究表明,3者之间存在着长期均衡关系,农村农业贷款、乡镇企业贷款对农民人均生活性消费支出增长均有正向作用.乡镇企业贷款是农业贷款的格兰杰原因,农业贷款是农民生活性消费支出的格兰杰原因.从短期来看,农民生活性消费支出自身滞后一期的数值对本期有显著的正向影响,农业贷款对农民生活性消费支出有一定的时滞影响.
|
| 关 键 词： | 农村金融 协整分析 格兰杰因果检验 误差修正模型 |
Study on rural financial support based on the ECM |
| |
| GUO Zhen.Study on rural financial support based on the ECM[J].Journal of Henan Agricultural University,2012(1):97-102. |
| |
| Authors: | GUO Zhen |
| |
| Institution: | GUO Zhen1,2 (1.Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China; 2.Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450009,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the 1990 to 2009 time-series data,the paper uses the Co-integration,Granger causality test and the Error Correction model to test the relationship among the living consumption of rural residents,agricultural loan and loan to rural enterprises.The results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among them.Both agricultural loan and loan to rural enterprises have positive influences on the incease of living consumption of rural residents.Granger causality proves that loan to rural enterprises is the Granger reason of agricultural loan and the latter is the Granger reason of the living consumption.Agricultural loan will promote the living consumption of rural residents in a long term,but this effect is not significant in a short term and has some time-lag. |
| |
| Keywords: | rural financial co-integration analysis granger causality test error correction model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
