| 基于支持向量机的中国节水灌溉面积预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李建伟.基于支持向量机的中国节水灌溉面积预测研究[J].节水灌溉,2012(5):76-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李建伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学机电工程学院,郑州,450002 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了了解未来几年中国节水灌溉面积的发展趋势,需要建立节水灌溉面积的预测模型。在对2000-2010年中国节水灌溉面积的统计数据进行归一化处理的基础上,采用支持向量机算法建立了回归预测模型。其中,2000-2009年的数据为训练样本,2010年的数据为检验样本。仿真预测与实际预测的结果表明该预测模型在所有预测样本点的相对误差的绝对平均值仅为0.14%,能满足对节水灌溉面积进行预测的需要。采用该模型对中国未来5年的节水灌溉面积进行了预测,指出了中国节水灌溉面积在"十二五"期间有加速增长的趋势。该研究结论对于了解未来中国节水灌溉的发展状况和制定相关规划具有重要的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 节水灌溉面积 支持向量机 面积预测 |
Study on Prediction of Chinese Water-saving Irrigation Area Based on Support Vector Machine |
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| LI Jian-wei.Study on Prediction of Chinese Water-saving Irrigation Area Based on Support Vector Machine[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2012(5):76-78. |
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| Authors: | LI Jian-wei |
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| Institution: | LI Jian-wei(Mechanical & Electrical Engineering College,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to understand the development trend of Chinese water-saving irrigation area in the next few years,it is need to construct the prediction model of water-saving irrigation area.Based on the normalized statistical data of Chinese water-saving irrigation area from 2000 to 2010,a prediction model was constructed by using support vector machine regression algorithm.In the process of modeling,the data from 2000 to 2009 were used as training samples and the data of 2010 was used as testing sample.The average absolute value of relative error on all samples was only 0.14 percent,it showed that the prediction model was available and had high predicted precision.Then,the values of Chinese water-saving irrigation area in the next five years were predicted by this model,and the development trend during Chinese "12th Five Year" was pointed out.The result provided an important reference for both understanding the status of Chinese water-saving irrigation in the future and formulating relevant development planning. |
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| Keywords: | water-saving irrigation area support vector machine area prediction |
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