| 基于气温预报和HS公式的参考作物腾发量预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗玉峰;李思;彭世彰;王卫光;缴锡云;姜云鹭;顾宏.基于气温预报和HS公式的参考作物腾发量预报[J].排灌机械,2013(11):987-992. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗玉峰;李思;彭世彰;王卫光;缴锡云;姜云鹭;顾宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学水利水电学院;高邮市水务局 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD25B07);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179048) |
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| 摘 要： | 为探索精确预报未来短期参考作物腾发量ET0的方法,提出基于气温预报和HargreavesSamani(HS)公式进行ET0预报.收集了南京站2001—2011年逐日气象观测数据和2011年预见期为4 d的逐日天气预报数据,采用FAO-56Penman-Monteith公式计算逐日ET0,用2001—2010年计算的ET0率定HS公式参数;用率定后的公式和2011年的天气预报气温数据进行未来4 d的ET0预报;比较2011年ET0的计算值与预报值、气温观测值与预报值以评价ET0预报精度及误差原因.结果表明:最低气温预报准确率达81.9%,最高气温预报准确率为80.1%;经过参数校正后,HS公式精度较高.ET0预报准确率为85.7%,平均绝对误差为1.01 mm/d,均方根误差为1.42 mm/d,相关系数为0.74;各项预报误差随着预见期的增大而增大.产生误差的主要原因为气温预报误差和HS公式未考虑平均风速和相对湿度的影响.总体而言,基于气温预报和HS公式的ET0预报方法精度较高,可为灌溉预报及决策提供较为准确的ET0预报数据.
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| 关 键 词： | 参考作物腾发量 灌溉制度 气温预报 灌溉预报 |
Forecasting reference crop evapotranspiration based on temperature forecast and Hargreaves-Samani equation |
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| Institution: | Luo Yufeng;Li Si;Peng Shizhang;Wang Weiguang;Jiao Xiyun;Jiang Yunlu;Gu Hong;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University;Gaoyou Municipal Water Affairs Bureau; |
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| Abstract: | To explore a method for forecasting short-term reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)precisely,a proposal that is based on temperature forecast and the Hargreaves-Samani(HS)equation was raised. Thus,the observed daily meteorological data from 2001 to 2011 in Nanjing Station and the daily weather forecast data for 4 day forecast horizon in 2011 were collected. Subsequently,daily ET0was calculated by using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM)equation,the parameters in the HS equation were corrected with 2001—2010 PM ET0values. Then the calibrated HS equation and temperature forecast were used to forecast the 4 day ET0. The forecasted and estimated ET0,forecasted and calculated temperatures were compared to evaluate the accuracy in ET0forecast and identify the causes for the errors. The results showed that the average accuracy in forecast for the minimum temperature was 81. 9%,and for the maximum temperature it was 80. 1%. After calibration,the accuracy of the HS equation was relatively high. The mean accuracy,MAE,RMSE and correlation coefficient were85. 7%,1. 01 mm/d,1. 42 mm/d and 0. 74,respectively,for ET0. Besides,the errors were enlarged with increasing forecast horizon. The main reason for the errors is that the mean wind speed and relative humidity are not taken into account in the HS equation. In general,the approach for predicting ET0based on temperature forecast and corrected HS equation has a better accuracy and can provide relatively accurate ET0data for irrigation forecast and decision making. |
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| Keywords: | reference crop evapotranspiration irrigation scheduling temperature forecast irrigation forecast |
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