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加工番茄产量组合预测模型研究
引用本文:韩泽群,姜波.加工番茄产量组合预测模型研究[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(3):161-165.
作者姓名:韩泽群  姜波
作者单位:新疆大学电气工程学院,乌鲁木齐830047
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“基于复杂约束环境下新疆番茄产量动态预测方法研究”(61064005)
摘    要:为了实现加工番茄产量的精准预测,通过采用方差倒数法来确定权重,将一元线性回归模型、灰色预测模型和指数平滑模型加以组合,根据2001—2009年新疆某加工番茄种植及产量数据,建立了加工番茄产量组合预测模型。以预测2010年和2011年番茄产量为例,结果表明此组合预测模型与单一预测模型相比更加准确可靠。该研究为加工番茄产业决策支持系统的建立奠定了理论基础。

关 键 词:集中度  集中度  
收稿时间:9/3/2012 12:00:00 AM
修稿时间:2012/9/26 0:00:00

Production of Processing Tomato Combination Forecasting Model Research
Han Zequn,Jiang Bo.Production of Processing Tomato Combination Forecasting Model Research[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(3):161-165.
Authors:Han Zequn  Jiang Bo
Institution:(School of Electrician Engineering Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830047)
Abstract:

This paper use variance reciprocal method to determine the weight, and combine a linear regression model, the grey forecasting model with exponential smoothing model. That purpose is that we can forecast the processing tomato yield accurately. We build a processing tomato production combination forecasting model by the 2001-2009 Xinjiang a processing tomato planting and production data. Take the predicting yield of 2010 and 2011 tomato production for example, we proved that compared with the single forecast model, the combination forecasting model was more accurate and reliable. And it provided the foundation for the establishment of the processing tomato industry decision support systems.

Keywords:decision support systems  processing tomato yield  combination forecasting model
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