| 基于MaxEnt模型青藏高原老芒麦适生区模拟预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩梦丽,白史且,孙盛楠,鄢家俊,张传杰,张昌兵,张靖雪,游明鸿,李达旭,严学兵.基于MaxEnt模型青藏高原老芒麦适生区模拟预测[J].草地学报,2021,29(2):374-382. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩梦丽 白史且 孙盛楠 鄢家俊 张传杰 张昌兵 张靖雪 游明鸿 李达旭 严学兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 扬州大学动物科学与技术学院, 江苏 扬州 225000;2. 四川草原科学研究院, 四川 成都 610000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金"青藏高原两种重要披碱草属植物谱系地理式样及其形成的种群遗传机制" |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究以青藏高原地区老芒麦（Elymus sibiricus L.）为研究对象，通过MaxEnt模型模拟预测其在青藏高原的分布格局，利用刀切法（Jackknife）筛选出影响老芒麦分布的主导环境因子，运用ArcGis软件对不同时期的老芒麦进行适生等级划分以及适生面积的计算。结果表明：老芒麦主要分布在青藏高原的东部地区。自末次间冰期（LIG）以来，老芒麦非适生区面积越来越大，在末次冰期盛冰期时，老芒麦向横断山脉东部移动，喜马拉雅西部部分地区成为老芒麦的高适生区。在2080年，老芒麦很可能向青藏高原东部边缘地区扩张，但总体上的的分布没有明显变化，比较稳定。综合4个时期的适生区分析，老芒麦经历了先收缩再扩大再收缩的变化。关键环境因子评估结果显示，影响老芒麦分布的主要环境因子是温度、降水和海拔，累计贡献率高达95.3%。
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| 关 键 词： | 老芒麦 MaxEnt 最大熵模型 适生区 环境因子 青藏高原 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-17 |
Simulation of Elymus sibiricus L .Distribution in Tibetan Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model |
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| HAN Meng-li,BAI Shi-qie,SUN Sheng-nan,YAN Jia-jun,ZHANG Chuang-jie,ZHANG Chang-bing,ZHANG Jing-xue,YOU Ming-hong,LI Da-xu,YAN Xue-bing.Simulation of Elymus sibiricus L .Distribution in Tibetan Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model[J].Acta Agrestia Sinica,2021,29(2):374-382. |
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| Authors: | HAN Meng-li BAI Shi-qie SUN Sheng-nan YAN Jia-jun ZHANG Chuang-jie ZHANG Chang-bing ZHANG Jing-xue YOU Ming-hong LI Da-xu YAN Xue-bing |
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| Institution: | 1. Yangzhou University College of Animal Science and Technology, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Provence 225000, China;2. Sichuan Academy of Grassland Science, Chengdu, Provence 610000, China |
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| Abstract: | The study used the MaxEnt model to simulate the historical,current and future distribution trends of the specie E. sibiricus L. Dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. sibiricus L were filtered out using the knifecutting method. Furthermore,ArcGis natural breaks method was used to divide fitness levels and calculate the suitable growth area by Zonal Statistic. Results showed that E. sibiricus L. mainly distributed in the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. Since the LIG,the suitable growth area had been gradually decreasing. During the last glacial maximum,E. sibiricus L moved to the east of Hengduan Mountains,and parts of Western Himalaya became highly adapted regions. In 2080,E. sibiricus L. could expand to the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau,however,the overall distribution had not obvious change and was relatively stable. Synthesizing the changes of distribution pattern in four periods,E. sibiricus L. experienced the distribution change of first contraction,then expansion and then contraction. Among the 20 environmental variables,the main factors affecting the distribution of E. sibiricus L. were temperature,precipitation and altitude,and the cumulative contribution rate reached 95.3%. |
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| Keywords: | Elymus sibiricus L MaxEnt ArcGis Suitable growth zone Environmental factor Tibetan plateau |
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