| 云南3种乔木防火期内含水率变化及预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张运林,宋红,胡海清.云南3种乔木防火期内含水率变化及预测模型[J].西北林学院学报,2019(1):157-162. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张运林 宋红 胡海清 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北林业大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 林业公益行业科研专项(201404402) |
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| 摘 要： | 乔木是森林可燃物重要部分,乔木叶片含水率预测是森林火险预报和火行为预报系统的重要任务之一。为了探究乔木叶片含水率变化规律及影响因子,对云南昆明3种典型乔木叶片的含水率变化进行研究。在侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)、云南松(Pinus yunnanensis)和华山松(Pinus armandii)林分内设置样地,于2014年2月19至5月29日进行为期100d的连续野外含水率观测,并同步监测样地内气象因子,分析了昆明地区3种主要乔木叶片在防火期内含水率的动态变化及影响因子,并建立了每种乔木可燃物类型的含水率变化预测模型。结果表明:1)防火期内3种乔木活可燃物的最低含水率都<130%,有发生树冠火的潜力。3种乔木的燃烧性由大到小依次为:侧柏、云南松、华山松。2)日平均湿度、降雨量及前5日降雨量对3种乔木活可燃物含水率都有显著影响。3)3种乔木可燃物含水率预测模型的平均绝对误差及平均相对误差的范围分别为8.4%～15.9%、6.3%～10.3%。研究结果为我国林火预测预报系统研究提供基础资料和科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 含水率 活可燃物 云南 燃烧性 模型 |
Prediction Model of Moisture Content of 3 Tree Species in Yunnan Province |
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| ZHANG Yun-lin,SONG Hong,HU Hai-qing.Prediction Model of Moisture Content of 3 Tree Species in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2019(1):157-162. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yun-lin SONG Hong HU Hai-qing |
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| Institution: | (Northeast Forest University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,China) |
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| Abstract: | The tree leaf is an important part of the forest flammable material.Prediction of the moisture content of the tree leaves is one of the important tasks of forest fire risk forecasting and fire behavior forecasting systems.In order to investigate the changes of moisture content and the influencing factors of the tree leaves,the moisture content changes of three typical tree leaves occurring in Kunming,Yunnan Province were studied.The plots were set up in Platycladus orientalis,Pinus yunnanensis,and P.armandii forests.The continuous field moisture content observation for 100 days was carried out from February 29 to May 29,2014,and the meteorological factors in the plots were monitored simultaneously.The dynamic changes and influence factors of moisture content in three main tree leaves occurring in Kunming during the fire prevention period were analyzed,and the prediction models of moisture content of each type of fuel were established.The results showed that the minimum moisture content of active combustible materials in the three types of trees during fire prevention period was less than 130%,and there was a possibility of crown fire.The combustibility of three types of tress from descending order was P.orientalis,P.yunnanensis,P.armandii .Daily average humidity,rainfall and the rainfall of the first 5 days had significant impact on moisture content of active combustible materials in all three species of trees.The mean absolute error and average relative error of the prediction models for fuel moisture content of three species were 8.4%-15.9% and 6.3%-10.3%,respectively.The study results would provide scientific basis and basic information for forest fire forecasting system. |
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| Keywords: | moisture content live fuel moisture content Yunnan Province combustion model |
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