| 湖泊生态系统稳态转换驱动因子判定方法研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵磊,刘永,李玉照,朱翔,邹锐,宋迪.湖泊生态系统稳态转换驱动因子判定方法研究进展[J].水生态学杂志,2017,38(1):1-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵磊 刘永 李玉照 朱翔 邹锐 宋迪 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省环境科学研究院,云南省高原湖泊流域污染过程与管理重点实验室,北京大学环境科学与工程学院，水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京大学环境科学与工程学院，水沙科学教育部重点实验室,云南省环境科学研究院,云南省高原湖泊流域污染过程与管理重点实验室,云南省环境科学研究院,云南省高原湖泊流域污染过程与管理重点实验室,云南省环境科学研究院,云南省高原湖泊流域污染过程与管理重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 摘 要： | 湖泊生态系统会在长期的人为胁迫和短期的强扰动下发生稳态转换,灾变性稳态转换将会导致湖泊水环境在短时间内急剧恶化,进而延缓和加大治理的进程及成本。探求浅水湖泊稳态转换驱动因子是科学合理确定湖泊管理策略的关键所在,现有的驱动因子判定方法主要有实验观测、统计分析和模型模拟。实验观测缺乏对生态系统整体的判断,仅采用观测数据并不能得出导致稳态转换确切的原因和效应;统计分析难以对未来作出预警;模型模拟可有效规避上述2种方法存在的问题,特别是机理模型是今后分析稳态转换的主要方法。有必要加强统计分析与模型模拟的结合、生态模型与传统水质水动力模型耦合等方面的研究工作。
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| 关 键 词： | 湖泊生态系统 稳态转换 模型模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/5/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/2/21 0:00:00 |
Review on Driving Factor Detection Methods of Regime Shift in Lake Ecosystem |
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| ZHAO Lei,LIU Yong,Li Yuzhao,ZHU Xiang,ZOU Rui and SONG Di.Review on Driving Factor Detection Methods of Regime Shift in Lake Ecosystem[J].Journal of Hydroecology,2017,38(1):1-9. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Lei LIU Yong Li Yuzhao ZHU Xiang ZOU Rui and SONG Di |
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| Institution: | Yunnan Institute for Environmental Sciences, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed,College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education,College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education,Yunnan Institute for Environmental Sciences, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed,Yunnan Institute for Environmental Sciences, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed,Yunnan Institute for Environmental Sciences, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed |
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| Abstract: | The lake ecosystem can undergo regime shifts triggered by long-term human threats and short-term strong disturbance. The catastrophic shifts can cause sharp deterioration of lake ecosystem in a short period of time and defer the process of restoration. For scientific management and decision making on lakes, it is therefore essential to reveal the mechanism and explore the driving factors of regime shifts. Experimental observation, statistical analysis and modelling are main methods that used to detect and identify driving factor of regime shift. Experimental observation is limited for the lack of identification of lake ecosystem as a whole. It is difficult to identify driving factor exactly only with experimental observation. Statistical analysis is based on history data. However before and after regime shifts, the ecosystem structure and key processes will change dramatically. So, regime shifts detection or foreshadow using experimental observation is limited. Model especially mechanism model will be a useful method to identify driving factor of regime shift. Some potential research focus was proposed based on the intensive literature review, including: (a) combination of statistical analysis and model; (b) coupling ecological model with hydrodynamic and water quality model. |
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| Keywords: | lake ecosystem regime shift driving factor |
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