| 河西走廊东部低温气候特征及预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁文魁,杨晓玲,杨金虎,周文霞.河西走廊东部低温气候特征及预报方法[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(5):885-890. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁文魁 杨晓玲 杨金虎 周文霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃 兰州 730020;甘肃省武威市气象局，甘肃 武威 733000;甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃 定西 743000 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省气象局第五批“十人计划”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用河西走廊东部武威市1960-2009年5个气象站低温（日最低气温≤-20℃）资料,系统分析该区低温的时空分布、强度、持续性等气候特征。结果表明：河西走廊东部低温天气具有明显的地域特征,海拔较高的山区和北部沙漠边缘低温日数明显多于绿洲平原区。随着气候变暖,年代、年低温日数明显减少,强度减弱。低温天气主要发生在1月、2...
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| 关 键 词： | 低温 时空分布 气候特征 ECMWF 数值预报 河西走廊 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-09-20; |
Study on Climatic Characteristics of Low Temperature in the East Hexi Corridor and Forecast Method |
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| DING Wen-kui,YANG Xiao-ling,YANG Jin-hu,ZHOU Wen-xia.Study on Climatic Characteristics of Low Temperature in the East Hexi Corridor and Forecast Method[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(5):885-890. |
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| Authors: | DING Wen-kui YANG Xiao-ling YANG Jin-hu ZHOU Wen-xia |
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| Institution: | 1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei 733000, Gansu Province, China; Dingxi Meteorological Bureau, Dingxi 743000, Gansu Province, China |
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| Abstract: | In this study, the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity and duration of low temperature in Wuwei in the east Hexi Corridor during the period of 1960-2009 were systematically analyzed using low temperature data (the lowest temperature ≤-20 ℃) observed by 5 meteorological stations. The results show that low temperature occurrence was regional, and low temperature days in high mountains and the marginal zone of north desert were obviously more than those in oases. Days and intensity of low temperature were significantly decreased with climate warming. Low temperature occurred mainly in January, February and December. Proportion of low temperature duration more than 2 days varied in a range of 41.4%-64.4% of the total, and severe low temperature occurred in low temperature process. The factors were initially elected with Press criterion and chosen with stepwise regression forecast method by selecting the ECMWF grid field data in January, February, November and December during the period of 2003-2007, the equations were developed with the optimal subset regression for forecasting the minimum temperature in January, February, November and December. The optimal significance equations for forecasting the minimum temperature were determined with the CSC double grading criterion, and the forecast equations passed through a significance test at level of α=0.01. Back substitution fitting rate of the prognostic equations varied in a range of 70.7%-76.5%, and the forecast accuracy rate was in a range of 63.5%-68.9%. An objective and effective instruction product was provided for forecasting low temperature. Forecast marginal value and forecast rank of low temperature were determined with the highest approach principle. |
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| Keywords: | low temperature climate characteristic ECMWF numerical forecast Hexi Corridor |
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