| 基于改进背景值的GM(1,1)模型的农业用水量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王园园.基于改进背景值的GM(1,1)模型的农业用水量预测[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(5):1865-1866. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王园园 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海,200092 |
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| 摘 要： | GM（1,1）模型可用于农业用水量的预测，但其精度还应提高。对传统的CU（1,1）模型进行原始数据序列光滑度和模型背景值构造方法的改进，先通过幂函数变换提高了原始数据序列的光滑度，在模型求解过程中采用改进的背景值算法，大大提高了模型的预测精度。将改进后的模型用于实际农业用水量的预测，结果证明改进后的模型具有很大优势。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业用水量 GM(1 1)模型 光滑度 背景值 |
Prediction of Agricultural Water Consumption Based on GM(1,1) Model with the Improved Background Value |
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| WANG Yuan-yuan.Prediction of Agricultural Water Consumption Based on GM(1,1) Model with the Improved Background Value[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2009,37(5):1865-1866. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yuan-yuan |
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| Institution: | WANG Yuan-yuan (College of Environmental Science , Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092) |
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| Abstract: | GM(1,1) model can be used in the prediction of agricultural water consumption,but the precision need to be improved.The smooth degree of original data sequence and the conformation method of model background value in the traditional GM(1,1) model were improved.The smooth degree of original data sequence was enhanced through power function conversion.The prediction precision of the model was greatly improved by using the improved background value arithmetic in the model solution process.The improved model wa... |
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| Keywords: | Agricultural water consumption GM(1 1) model Smooth degree Background value |
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