| Gompertz 增长模型在林产品产值预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 余永清,付顺华.Gompertz 增长模型在林产品产值预测中的应用[J].浙江农林大学学报,2001,18(1):85-88. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余永清 付顺华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江林学院 信息工程与基础科学系, 浙江 临安 311300;2.浙江林学院 资源与环境系, 浙江 临安 311300 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用增长模型的理论和方法, 根据《临安五十年》中的统计数据建立Gompertz 增长模型=6 exp -5.802 0 e-0.3679t] , 并对临安市的林产品的产值进行预测。预测结果与实际值的相对误差仅为0.008 2 %, 相关指数达到0.999 2 , 表明模型与实际值拟合程度很好, 达到了较高的精度。预测方法简便易行, 具有实用意义。模型也可用来预测经济林产量和资源消耗量等, 为林业生产、经营及技术更新提供决策依据, 提高管理上的宏观调控能力。图3 表1 参4
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| 关 键 词： | Gompertz 增长模型 最小二乘法 林产品 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 1999-12-13 |
Application of Gompertz increase model to prediction of forestry product value |
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| YU Yong-qing,FU Shun-hua.Application of Gompertz increase model to prediction of forestry product value[J].Journal of Zhejiang A&F University,2001,18(1):85-88. |
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| Authors: | YU Yong-qing FU Shun-hua |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Information Engineering and Basic Science , Zhejiang Forestry College , Lin’an 311300 , Zhejiang , China;2..Department of Resources and Environment , Zhejiang Forestry College , Lin’an 311300 , Zhejiang , China |
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| Abstract: | By the theory and method of increase model , with statistical data in Fifty Years of Linan , the Gompertz increase model =6 exp -5.802 0 e-0.367 9 t] was established , which predicted the output value of forest products .The model corresponded more to practicality and attained high rigidity .The relative error was 0.008 2 % between prediction and actual value , correlative index was 0.999 2 .This predicting measure is simple and easy to use , and has practical significance , it can also be used in predicting the output of cash forests and the volume of forestry resource consumption etc .It offers decision warranty and raises the power of general control for forestry management . |
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