| 具有函数型特征的干旱频率分析方法及应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王轩儒,蔡欣宇,王立平.具有函数型特征的干旱频率分析方法及应用研究[J].现代农业科技,2020(16). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王轩儒 蔡欣宇 王立平 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学 数学学院,合肥工业大学 数学学院,合肥工业大学 经济学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 合肥工业大学2019年国家（省）级大学生创新创业训练计划项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文依据降水量距平百分比的游程理论,采用1986-2016年安徽省六大水文站点降雨量数据进行干旱识别,应用函数型数据分析方法拟合修匀干旱历时(D)与干旱烈度(S)的频率分布曲线,并根据重现期研究干旱事件的特征与时间、流域、气候之间的关系。结果表明,干旱平均历时整体趋势由北向南逐步减小,干旱烈度受气候影响明显,温带气候所受干旱更严重;函数型数据分析方法所得到的干旱历时与烈度频率分布曲线与普通方法的拟合函数曲线相比较更加接近样本点,具有较理想的拟合效果;随着重现期的增加,干旱烈度与干旱历时呈减轻趋势,干旱发生的频次越严重,再次发生干旱的可能性越低。
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| 关 键 词： | 函数型数据 游程理论 频率分析 重现期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/4/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/4/28 0:00:00 |
A method of drought frequency analysis with functional characteristics and its application |
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| Abstract: | This article based on the run theory and the six major hydrological site in anhui province from 1986 to 2016 precipitation data is used to identify the drought.Meanwhile,the functional data analysis method is applied to fitting smoothing frequency distribution curve of drought duration (D) and drought intensity (S).According to the recurrence period of the study of the characteristics of the drought event with time, basin, and the relationship between the climate.The results show that :(1) the overall trend of average drought duration decreases gradually from north to south, and the drought intensity is significantly affected by climate, while the drought intensity is more serious in temperate climate.(2) the distribution curve of drought duration and intensity frequency obtained by the functional data analysis method is closer to the sample point than the fitting function curve of the ordinary method and also has a better fitting effect;(3) with the increase of the recurrence period, drought intensity and drought duration showed a decreasing trend, and the more severe the frequency of drought, the lower the probability of drought occurring again. |
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| Keywords: | Functional data run theory frequencySanalysis recurrence period |
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