| 五道沟地区“蒸发悖论”及成因探析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王怡宁,杨秒,王兵,路璐,梅海鹏,王振龙.五道沟地区“蒸发悖论”及成因探析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020(3):126-133. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王怡宁 杨秒 王兵 路璐 梅海鹏 王振龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京水利科学研究院;河海大学;安徽省（水利部淮委）水利科学研究院;河北工程大学水利水电学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0404504)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】探讨五道沟地区"蒸发悖论"及成因探析。【方法】以位于五道沟地区的五道沟实验站气象场1970―2017年实测数据为背景资料。对蒸发量的年际变化趋势进行分析与预测,对其影响因素(风速、温度、日照时间、水汽压力差、降雨量、相对湿度)应用线性趋势法进行定性分析,应用熵值法进行综合评价,并深入探讨蒸发皿蒸发量趋势变化的成因。【结果】1970―2017年蒸发量呈明显下降趋势,下降速率为8.7 mm/a,运用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型与Verhulst模型对蒸发量的年际趋势进行预测,结果表明GM(1,1)模型预测效果更好。蒸发量与各气象要素的相关关系:风速、日照时间与蒸发量呈正相关关系,气温、相对湿度、降雨量与蒸发量呈负相关关系。1970―2017年间气温每10年平均升高0.25℃,水面蒸发每10年平均下降86.9 mm,该区存在"蒸发悖论"现象。线性趋势法与熵值法对各影响因素分析结果一致:风速>气温>相对湿度>日照时间>降雨量>水汽压力差,表明在全球气候变暖的大背景下,风速下降、相对湿度增加和日照时间减少是该区"蒸发悖论"现象的主要因素。日照时间的下降可能是气溶胶含量增多造成的;风速的下降可能与城镇化发展有关,风速减弱可能会引起气溶胶增多;相对湿度的增加,会导致日照时间的减少。【结论】五道沟地区"蒸发悖论"的成因可能是气溶胶量的增加,太阳辐射减少,蒸发量下降。
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| 关 键 词： | 蒸发皿蒸发量 趋势变化 气象因素 五道沟地区 |
The“Evaporation Paradox”in Wudaogou Area and Its Underlying Mechanisms |
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| WANG Yining,YANG Miao,WANG Bing,LU Lu,MEI Haipeng,WANG Zhenlong.The“Evaporation Paradox”in Wudaogou Area and Its Underlying Mechanisms[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2020(3):126-133. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yining YANG Miao WANG Bing LU Lu MEI Haipeng WANG Zhenlong |
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| Institution: | (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province,Bengbu 233000,China;Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056021,China) |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】“Evaporation paradox”is the contradiction between the predicted increase in evaporation due to climate change and the real evaporation measured in most parts in the norther hemisphere.This paper analyzed its existence and the underlying mechanisms in Wudaogou area.【Method】The study was based on the metrological data measured from 1970 to 2017 from a weather station in the Wudaogou Experimental Station.We analyzed the variation of annual evaporation and its determinants including wind speed,temperature,sunshine hours,water vapor pressure difference,rainfall and relative humidity,using trend-line analysis and entropy methods.【Result】①The annual evaporation had been in decline from 1970 to 2017 at average rate of 8.7 mm/a.The GM(1,1)model coupled with the Verhulst model in the gray system can describe the inter-annual evaporation.②The evaporation was positively correlated with wind speed,sunshine hours and evaporation,and negatively correlated with temperature,relative humidity and rainfall.The temperature had risen from 1970 to 2017 at rate of 0.25℃per decade,while the evaporation decreased at rate of 86.9 mm per decade,typical"evaporation paradox".③The linear trend method and the entropy method gave consistent results that the factors that impacted on the evaporation more significantly were in the order of wind speed>temperature>relative humidity>sunshine hours>rainfall>water vapor pressure difference,indicating that the reduction in wind speed and sunshine hours,along with the increase in relative humidity,combined to yield the“evaporation paradox”in the studied area.④The decrease in sunshine hours was likely to be caused by the increase in aerosol content,while the slowing wind speed induced by urbanization could have made the aerosol increase.The increased relative humidity gave rise to more foggy weather thereby reducing sunshine hours.【Conclusion】There was an“evaporation paradox”in the Wudaogou area which was likely to be caused by the increased aerosol content which in turn reduced solar radiation and evaporation. |
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| Keywords: | pan evaporation trend variation meteorological factors Wudaogou area |
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